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Dramatic monetary loosening unlikely despite eased inflation
Last Updated(Beijing Time):2011-11-10 14:36

Many economists agree that the lower consumer price index (CPI) growth in October provides bigger room for China to fine-tune its macro-policy; however, they also caution that fine-tuning does not mean dramatic change in the monetary stance.

China's CPI, a main gauge of inflation, increased 5.5 percent in October from a year earlier, the slowest surge since May this year, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Wednesday.

"The October CPI data showed that the government's price control efforts have started to pay off," said Zhang Liqun, a macroeconomic researcher with the Development Research Center of the State Council, or China's Cabinet.

Although the October CPI is still high, inflation has been heading for a downward trend.

Meanwhile, the pressure to sustain growth has intensified as China's GDP expanded by 9.1 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of this year, the slowest pace since the third quarter of 2009.

"Considering the economic turbulence in developed countries and China's own urgent task of restructuring its growth pattern, an economic slowdown is inevitable," said Li Daokui, an academic adviser to the People's Bank of China, China's central bank.

He predicted that China's GDP will be 9.2 percent in 2011 and 8.5 percent in 2012, respectively, refuting the speculation that China's economy may face a hard landing.

Given this situation, he said that minor adjustment instead of major changes could be made in the macro-policy, and the current prudent monetary policy should remain intact till next year.

Although Premier Wen Jiabao said last month that China will take pre-measures or make fine tuning on its macro policy at a proper time and at a proper degree, tight regulation on the real estate market will not waver.

And the fine-tuning will focus on reducing structural taxes, increasing people's incomes, boosting consumption and supporting small and medium-sized enterprises.

Analysts share the view that this kind of policy fine-tuning is imperative for China to achieve a sustainable growth and transform its economic development mode.

"Although high levels of the government gesture for fine tuning on macro policy, the premise of a prudent monetary stance will not change," said Sun Jianlin, general manger with China CITIC Bank's credit management department.

"Policy fine-tuning signals have become increasingly clear. But a major monetary loosening is unlikely and the capital market development trend will remain the same," said Peng Wensheng, chief economist with China International Capital Corporation.

Fan Gang, director of China's national economic research institute, also cautioned that a major loosening in the monetary policy right now would be detrimental to China's economic growth.

"Considering the still high inflation rate, real estate bubble and the volatile global financial market, the market should not pin high hope on monetary loosening," he noted.

Source:Xinhua 
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