By Tao Guofeng

At Christie's London Auctions on Chinese Porcelains and Export Artworks 2005, a blue-and-white porcelain jar from the Yuan Dynasty showing the scene of Gui Guzi descends the mountain was sold at 15.68 million (more than RMB 230 million yuan, or over US$ 27.7 million). Such price set an auction record for porcelain artwork in the world. It seems to tell us that Chinese porcelain is getting hot at an unprecedented speed in the international market when the Gui Guzi descends the mountain. There seem quite some reasons for us having confidence in expecting such an exciting scene in London to happen in China.

London is not a unique story, and there is also good momentum in the market of China Hong Kong. At spring auctions 2006, Christie's Hong Kong sold a glaze-red vase decorated with peony from Ming Dynasty Hongwu for HKD 832.3 million. Sotheby's Hong Kong also sold a glaze-red bowl decorated with three fishes from Ming Dynasty Xuande for a high price of HKD 161.4 million.

On the contrary, there is no special event in the porcelain market of Mainland China. In particular, the quiet porcelain market draws a sharp contrast with the exciting painting market.

Seeing from the autumn auctions in 2006, except several leading companies such as China Guardian Auctions Co., Ltd. and Beijing Hanhai Auction Co., Ltd., few number of over 3,000 auction companies across the country put porcelain as a focus, and some even did not get involved in this field. Among those selling porcelain, the quantity of porcelain work is little and its quality level is poor, and of course did not yield to good results. Some companies only have about 40 percent for its successful porcelain auctions.

China's artwork market has been developing very fast in recent years, with porcelain holding a constant important position in the whole market. In 2003, porcelain covered a market share almost the same as calligraphy work and paintings. Of the Top 100 deal prices in China's artwork market that year, porcelain enjoyed 53. However, calligraphy work and paintings were extremely hot in 2003 and porcelain lagged behind. Seeing from the investment trend in terms of international artwork, Chinese porcelain deserves a better market and price than calligraphy work and paintings. To date, the top price record of Chinese artwork has still been kept by porcelain. Collectors at both home and abroad hold a consensus that the development of Chinese porcelain should be at least no worse than that of calligraphy work and paintings. However, it is also a fact that porcelain has a quite market and shrinking market share at present.

Facing such an inexplicable phenomenon, there are still quite a lot optimistic insiders. They believe that the global artwork market is entering a new era of rapid development. Under the overall situation of rapid economic growth, China's artwork market will have a better momentum than that of the international market, and will get hot much faster. The porcelain market will not go against the general trend of international and domestic artwork market although it picks up momentum a little slowly. The performance of auction companies like China Guardian and Beijing Hanhai can testify to this point.

In Spring Auctions 2006, China Guardian sold a rose porcelain bottle showing eight immortals crossing the sea from Qing Dynasty Qianlong for RMB 528 million yuan, setting a highest price record for mainland porcelain auction. Beijing Hanhai sold a Kuan bottle vase from Nan-Song Dynasty and a blue-and-white cucurbit-like flat porcelain bottle decorated with flowers and ribbons from Ming Dynasty Yongle respectively for RMB 165 million yuan and RMB 154 million yuan. Such high prices at least prove the following points:

Firstly, porcelain market's development was quiet only compared with that of calligraphy work and paintings. Such a big market with great potential is only being adjusted, but not equaling to declining. After its adjustments, there will possibly be a new rise in porcelain market.

Secondly, the classic porcelain artworks still enjoy much space for a further rise although its price is not yet adjusted. It is analyzed that there is a 30 percent to 40 percent increasing for its price, which deserves investors to take them into consideration. Good artwork deserves good price and good vision yields good profits. In future it will be not surprising that more collectors turning their eyes to porcelain market.

Although China's artwork market is developing at a rapid speed, we have to accept that this market is still immature, and the fact of propagandizing still exists in modern porcelain market. There exits many reasons for the quiet porcelain market: except for scarcity of genuine artwork, and poor quality of investors and managers, little propagandizing in this aspect is also an important element. Without such enthusiasm investment tide like calligraphy work and paintings in porcelain market, it proves to be relatively more rational in porcelain market and safer for investors. Unheated market means more and better opportunities for far-sighted investors.

In addition, a vital reason for collectors' reluctance to invest in porcelain market is to be fear of frauds considering too many fakes. Only a few people with interests are able to collect porcelain artwork and fewer can identify the genuine. Guarding against fakes requires appraisers to be highly capable. However, the truth is the technical level of counterfeiters grows faster than appraisers. Low risk and huge profits give rise to growing counterfeiting, which has become an obstacle for sound development of artwork market. Guarding against and combating fakes requires high-level professional appraisal. What's more important is to establish a scientific, strict appraising mechanism conducive for supervision as well as to formulate relevant laws and regulations and strengthen the enforcement.