In the fourth quarter of 2012, CE Coal Industry Prosperity Index was 97.0, decreasing 1.0 points compared with the previous quarter; CE Coal Industry Warning Index was 66.7, increasing 3.4 points compared with the previous quarter.
In the context of stabilizing recovery of macro economy, the year-on-year growth rate of the main business income, total profit and total taxes in the coal industry rebounded after a continuous decline, but the Coal Industry Prosperity Index created new lows because of the effect of the declining year-on-year growth rates of total investment in fixed assets and the number of employees. In 2013, excess capacity may become the norm, and the industry will still be in deep adjustment period.
Prosperity Index Declined by 1.0 Points
In the fourth quarter of 2012, CE Coal Industry Prosperity Index was 97.0 (take the growth level of 2003 as 100), decreasing 1.0 points compared with the previous quarter which created new lows.
Among the six indicators which constitute China's Coal Industry Prosperity Index, the all year-on-year growth rates of main business income, profits and total taxes switched to the upward trend in this quarter from the downward trend in the previous quarter; whereas the year-on-year growth rates of the investment in fixed assets and the number of employees all showed a declining trend.
Further eliminating the random factors, China's Coal Industry Prosperity Index was 96.6, decreasing 0.7 points compared with the previous quarter, which was slightly lower than the prosperity index without the random factors being eliminated by 0.4 points. Both of the two curves continued the falling trend of the previous quarter.
The warning index was still in "light blue light zone"
In the fourth quarter, CE Coal Industry Warning Index was 66.7, increasing 3.4 points compared with the previous quarter, but it was still in the "light blue light zone" that indicates a colder running. The warning recovery was mainly affected by the decline in funds for finished goods and receivables, reflecting destocking to some extent. In the fourth quarter, the light signals of most indicators did not change significantly, but the light signals of the funds (reversed) for finished product and receivables (reversed) showed encouraging signs.
Sales rebounded
After a preliminary seasonal adjustment, the main business income of the coal industry in the fourth quarter was RMB991.91 billion yuan, which met a year-on-year growth of 8.8 percent while that of the previous quarter declined by 0.6 percent year on year.
In the fourth quarter, the stabilizing of macro economy, the increasing coal demand of the downstream electricity, iron and steel, cement and other industries, and moreover the arrival of the coal using peak in winter accelerated the year-on-year growth rate of main business income to some extent. However, as the capacity has not been effectively controlled, the production cuts willingness of enterprises was not strong, and the international coal market impacted, consequently the imbalance between coal supply and demand failed to be effectively eased, resulting in higher destocking pressure in the overall industry, which weakened the role of increased demand in promoting prices and affected the growth of main business income.
Exports was almost the same level
After a preliminary seasonal adjustment, the total exports of coal industry in the fourth quarter was US$240 million, which met a year-on-year decline of 54.6 percent, and the decrease range expanded by 1.9 points; the quarter-to-quarter decrease was 11.9 percent and that of the previous quarter was 49.2 percent.
Prices continued to fall
In the fourth quarter, the overall level of producer ex-factory prices in coal industry decreased by 12.0 percent year on year, and the decrease rate expanded by 5.3 points compared with the previous quarter. The coal capacity was further released, and the year-on-year growth rate of the output of raw coal continued to accelerate, while the destocking pressures increased; international coal imports continued to increase, resulting in the decline of coal price. The continuous decline of coal prices was not conducive to the advance of the full use of resources and energy conservation.
A slowdown in inventory growth
After a preliminary seasonal adjustment, at the end of the fourth quarter, the fund of the finished products of the coal industry was RMB87.05 billion yuan, which met a year-on-year growth of 19.1 percent, and there was a slowdown of 14.6 points for the growth rate compared with the previous quarter, with a quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.7 percent. That indicated that the coal industry was still in the destocking phase.
Decline trend of profit slowed
After a preliminary seasonal adjustment, the coal industry achieved a total profit of RMB82.38 billion yuan in the fourth quarter, which met a year-on-year decline of 29.6 percent and the decrease rate narrowed by 10.3 points compared with the previous quarter; the quarter-on-quarter rise was 26.6 percent, while there was a quarter-on-quarter decline of 37.4 percent in the previous quarter. In the first three quarters of 2012, the year-on-year growth rate of the total profit of the coal industry and the sales margin has been declining, wherein the year-on-year growth rate of the total profit has been in negative growth since the second quarter. In the fourth quarter, the sales margin of coal industry was 8.3 percent, which increased by 0.8 points compared with the previous quarter and was higher than the quarterly average level of the total industrial sales profit rate 6.5 percent.
A narrowed decline in tax revenues
After a preliminary seasonal adjustment, the total taxes paid by the coal industry in the fourth quarter was RMB68.82 billion yuan, which declined by 10.5 percent year on year and the decreased range narrowed by 4.6 points compared with the previous quarter. According the estimates, the proportion of the total taxes of coal industry in main business income in the fourth quarter was 7 percent, which was almost the same level of the previous quarter, but still higher than the average level of 4.5 percent in the overall industries.
Received payments pressure tended to ease
At the end of the fourth quarter, the accounts receivable of the coal industry was RMB307.9 billion yuan, which met a year-on-year growth of 22 percent and the growth rate declined by 7.2 points compared with the previous quarter. In the fourth quarter, turnover days of the coal industry receivables were 27.4 days, with a decrease of 1.7 days compared with the previous quarter, but it was still at a good level compared with the average of all industrial receivables turnover days of 31.1 days.
Investment switched to decrease from increase
After a preliminary seasonal adjustment, the total investment in fixed assets of the coal industry in the fourth quarter was RMB145.95 billion yuan, which met a year-on-year decline of 7.9 percent and it switched to a year-on-year decrease from a year-on-year increase in the previous quarter, while the fall speed has been accelerated. This indicates that the price decline, sales blockage, coal backlog, salary cut of coal enterprises and other factors have had a negative impact on investors' investment enthusiasm.
Employment continued to decline
The number of employees of the coal industry in the fourth quarter was 5.312 million, which met a year-on-year growth of 0.9 percent, and the growth rate slowed down by 1.1 points compared with the previous quarter. The year-on-year growth of the number of employed people in coal industry created a new low record, which is conducive to alleviating the excessive expansion state of the industry.
