China set to account for one third of global growth in 2023
by Liao Yifan
"China's economy is seeing a strong rebound, and the IMF's January forecast puts its GDP growth at 5.2 percent this year—a sizeable increase of more than 2 percentage points from the 2022 rate," said IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva.
The robust rebound means China is set to account for around one third of global growth in 2023—giving a welcome lift to the world economy, she said during the China Development Forum 2023.
Beyond the direct contribute to global growth, Georgieva said IMF's analysis shows that a 1 percentage point increase in GDP growth in China leads to 0.3 percentage point increase in growth in other Asian economies, on average.
For the world economy, however, spring is yet to come.
"We expect 2023 to be another challenging year, with global growth slowing to below 3% as scarring from the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and monetary tightening weigh on economic activity. Even with a better outlook for 2024, global growth will remain well below its historic average of 3.8%," she said.
Among the weak global economy, Georgieva said policymakers had acted decisively in response to financial stability risks, adding that IMF will continue to monitor developments closely and pay close attention to the most vulnerable countries, in particular low-income countries with high levels of debt.
In addition, Georgieva highlighted two opportunities for policymakers at the meeting. One is to raise productivity and rebalance the economy away from investment and towards more consumption-driven growth. The second is green growth.