By Wu Siya

 

WENZHOU, July. 25 (China Economic Net)– "In the first half of 2024, the overall development of China's photovoltaic industry could be described as a world of ice and fire, with challenges and opportunities complementing each other; however, as we all know, the global comprehensive energy transformation is irreversible. While maintaining an optimistic outlook on the market, all qualified companies should flexibly adjust their overseas strategies," noted Wang Bohua, Honorary Chairman of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, in his keynote address at the 2024 H1 Photovoltaic Industry Development Retrospect and Situation Prospect Seminar hosted by the CPIA on July 25.

 

 

How was the overall status of the PV industry in the past six months? And what should we expect in the second half?

 

As a new quality productive force, China’s PV industry has achieved spectacular leapfrog development in the past decade. The efficiency of mainstream batteries has increased from 17.9% in 2013 to more than 25.0% in 2023; the cumulative installed capacity has increased 22 times, from 28.07GW ten years ago to 608.9GW at the end of last year; the total photovoltaic power generation has soared from 25 billion kWh to 583.3 billion kWh, meaning a 23-fold increase. 

 

“However, blind optimism means the prelude of failure. Development of any industry is a spiral upward, which means, bottleneck period encounters regularly,” Wang added. Statistic from CPIA shows that although the domestic export volume of silicon wafers, batteries, and modules increased by 34.5%, 32.1%, and 19.7% year-on-year in the first half, respectively, we are facing the current situation of “increasing volume but falling prices”. The total export volume in the first half was approximately US$18.67 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 35.4%.

 

In the first half of 2024, Asia surpassed Europe’s $7 billion with a total of nearly $8.5 billion, becoming the largest export market for Chinese PV products. Although Europe is still the largest module export market, its market share has dropped significantly, from 57.4% in the same period of 2023 to 42.5%. During the same period, Pakistan became the second largest module export market, while the Saudi Arabian market grew significantly, becoming the fifth of the top ten module export markets.

 

Meanwhile, internal challenges such as losses caused by low prices, slowing capacity growth, difficulties in corporate transformation, and consumption problems, as well as external obstacles such as the collective introduction of trade barrier policies by global leading photovoltaic markets such as the United States, Europe, India, Brazil, and South Africa, which restrict the direct export of domestic products, require targeted policies to respond reasonably.

 

By giving examples, the Chairman pointed out that the bottleneck of distributed consumption needs to be solved through market-oriented means, such as promoting the local consumption of distributed photovoltaics by further developing electric vehicles in rural areas and photovoltaic storage charging. Facing the rapid development of overseas local supply chains, enterprises should adopt a more flexible overseas strategy. 

 

“According to our forecasts, the global installed capacity will reach 390-430GW in 2024, remaining high and concentrated in major markets such as China, the United States, Europe, and India. Moreover, emerging markets such as the Middle East and Latin America will also usher in rapid growth. First of all, our insiders should adopt an overseas expansion model of industrial chain cooperation, rather than fighting alone in a certain link; next, adopt a decentralized layout model in the Belt and Road Initiative countries and Western countries, rather than putting all eggs in one basket; finally, using an investment model of a diversified combination of overseas capital joint ventures, technology licensing, and brand licensing.”