by Hasan Muhammad

China’s economy continues to defy expectations, growing steadily in 2024 despite the headwinds. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the GDP increased by 4.8 percent in the first three quarters, reaching a remarkable 94.97 trillion yuan ($13.33 trillion). While some outside forecasts underestimated this growth, Chinese economy’s resilience is clear. In the third quarter alone, the GDP rose by 4.6 percent, a slight dip from the 4.7 percent growth in the second quarter, but still outpacing global projections.

It’s a testament to China's strong policies, aimed at bolstering economic activity and shielding the nation from both internal and external disruptions. Analysts believe these policies, combined with further anticipated stimulus, will ensure that this momentum not only continues but strengthens in the months ahead. The numbers tell a compelling story: despite the global uncertainty, China’s economy is on solid ground, its growth stable, and its prospects promising.

By industry, the numbers tell a story of steady growth: the primary sector, largely agricultural, grew by 3.4 percent, reaching 5.77 trillion yuan; the industrial, or secondary, sector expanded by 5.4 percent to 36.14 trillion yuan; and the service-driven tertiary sector, encompassing everything from finance to technology, saw a 4.7 percent rise, reaching a staggering 53.07 trillion yuan. These figures reflect the multi-layered strength of Chinese economy. Consumer activity is also picking up, as retail sales of consumer goods climbed by 3.3 percent in the first three quarters, totaling 35.35 trillion yuan.

China’s economy seems poised for a surge as the year draws to a close. Analysts are pointing to large-scale government bond issuance and potential liquidity injections by November, aimed at propelling growth in the near term. But the real challenge lies in reigniting consumer confidence, which remains stubbornly subdued - a critical piece for ensuring more sustainable, medium-term growth. The third quarter offered a mixed but hopeful picture.

The broader economic indicators also trended upwards. In the twilight of 2024, China stands at a crossroads, managing the delicate balance between cautious optimism and persistent economic headwinds. Chinese authorities have been swift, orchestrating a suite of measures designed to stoke market demand. A trillion-yuan issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds is in motion, alongside a bold initiative for large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-ins - moves that signal a government intent on reigniting growth.

More is expected. Since late September, we’ve witnessed a softening of monetary and property policies, increased investment spending, and a commitment to addressing local government hidden debt - an unspoken burden weighing on the economy for years. This marked policy shift has injected a fresh sense of hope into investor circles, casting a renewed spotlight on China’s resilience.

As recent stimulus measures take hold and internal growth drivers gain momentum, China is on track to meet its annual growth target. Yet, beyond short-term boosts, deeper reforms are needed to tackle enduring structural challenges. The real estate sector, bulk consumption, and the fiscal dynamics between central and local governments demand attention. While stimulating domestic demand is critical, addressing these long-term issues is equally vital to ensuring sustained economic resilience. China’s future depends not only on immediate recovery but also on its capacity to tackle these complex reforms for stable, enduring growth.