By Wu Siya

 

BEIJING, Nov. 30 (China Economic Net) – "China and the United States have an irreplaceable and key position in the global soybean supply chain. The soybean industries of the two countries can deepen mutually beneficial cooperation, and through more responsible soybean production in the United States and more responsible soybean consumption in China, jointly contribute to building a global green, low-carbon and sustainable soybean product supply chain, " Zhang Xiaoping, Greater China Regional Director of the U.S. Soybean Export Council (USSEC), told China Economic Net during an exclusive interview, at the 2nd China International Supply Chain Expo (CISCE).

 

 

"Since USSEC officially entered the Chinese market in 1982, we have always recognized that Sino-US soybean trade perfectly fits the best practices of the global supply chain: China needs the most high-quality soybeans, which the United States happens to have," Zhang introduced. "Such a highly complementary trade could be called the ballast of Sino-US trade. Although the scale of trade has fluctuated slightly due to geopolitical factors in recent years, the overall development trend has not changed. Sino-US soybean trade reached its peak in 2017, with China's imports of US soybeans reaching 36 million tons. It currently remains at around 25 million tons, but this is closely related to factors such as climate and local wars that have affected the global price and suppressed demand."

 

Zhang stressed that since the trade war in 2018, the US business community, especially soybean traders and the majority of soybean farmers have firmly opposed measures such as tariffs, trade barriers, and trade subsidies, while US soybean practitioners are still confident in the Chinese market. "China has a population of 1.4 billion and has just achieved complete poverty alleviation. The people's demand for high-quality protein is growing, which contains unlimited opportunities for us."

 

 

According to a Bloomberg report on November 28, some U.S. traders thought that US soybean exports to China would slow down before Trump took office, but China still "unexpectedly" continued to buy US soybeans. According to the latest export sales announcement released by the US Department of Agriculture on November 27, data from private exporters showed that the United States sold 132,000 tons of soybeans to China this week for delivery in the 2024/2025 sales year. China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans, but U.S. soybeans remain a "key reserve," the report said.

 

"Now, China is not going to buy 100% of its soybeans from Brazil," said Jake Hanley, senior portfolio strategist at Teucrium, an agricultural ETF company. "The United States is the world's second-largest soybean exporter, so I don't think China will leave."

 

China is the world's largest importer of soybeans and corn. The National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) and the American Soybean Association (ASA) noted that if China cancels the existing tariff exemptions for U.S. soybeans and corn, it will lead to a reduction of up to 16 million tons of U.S. soybean exports to China, a drop of more than 50%. If China imposes new retaliatory tariffs on the United States, the losses to U.S. agricultural products may be even greater. Just like the trade war in 2018, it is unlikely that the U.S. agricultural industry will find new businesses to make up for these losses.

 

"It is obvious that a trade war will only result in losses for both sides. Moreover, China is the largest export market for U.S. products and currently still accounts for more than 50% of the total U.S. soybean exports. We'll continue to strive for the healthy and stable development of Sino-US soybean trade," Zhang added that the U.S. soybean industry will be committed to deeply exploring the value of soybeans, promoting the green, low-carbon, sustainable and high-quality development of China's economy.