By Hasan Muhammad

Editor's Note: The writer is a freelance columnist on international affairs based in Karachi, Pakistan. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of China Economic Net.

Now, with the clang of trade barriers echoing across global markets, the economic nationalism that pursued by the United States threatens to turn a simmering energy revolution into a short-circuited debacle.

The so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs - unveiled with theatrical flair on April 2 - were touted as a grand strike against foreign domination. But for much of the U.S. energy sector and its global partners, they mark the onset of a prolonged and costly siege. But we find a tangled mess of falling demand, collapsing oil prices, paralyzed investment, and a reversal of the very independence America once celebrated in its energy ambitions.

There is bitter irony in this unfolding drama. The tariffs - ostensibly aimed at reviving domestic manufacturing and undercutting strategic rivals - are instead bludgeoning the very sectors that drive the energy engine, from shale oil rigs in Texas to solar farms in California.

In its most severe “trade war” scenario - where U.S. tariffs breach 30 percent and reciprocal measures proliferate - global GDP could shrink by nearly 3 percent by the end of the decade. The energy sector, ever vulnerable to the tremors of macroeconomic flux, would absorb the shock disproportionately.

Nowhere is the impact more acute than in oil. After years of breathless expansion, U.S. shale production is on the brink of a forced retreat. If crude prices collapse to $50 per barrel - as projected for 2026 - the economics of fracking in the Lower 48 become untenable. Breakeven ambitions aside, companies cannot drill their way out of red ink.

That looming price plunge isn't just an accounting headache. It risks torpedoing the entire supply chain, from rig operators and pipeline builders to the truckers ferrying frack sand across the heartland. Investment, already a cautious creature, will shrivel. Projects not yet under construction will be mothballed. Global supply outside the U.S. will likewise suffer, as upstream budgets are slashed and long-term prospects cloud over.

It would be tempting to view this crisis solely through the lens of oil. But that would be to miss the broader tragedy - a paralytic uncertainty that now grips the entire power sector. Tariffs, by their very design, inject volatility into cost structures. In an industry where projects are planned years, even decades in advance, this is not mere nuisance; it's existential disruption.

For renewables - solar, wind, battery storage - the impact is particularly perverse. The tariffs make the U.S. one of the world's most expensive environments for clean energy deployment, even as the climate crisis demands urgency and scale. With steel, aluminum, copper, and lithium all caught in the tariff crossfire, building the infrastructure of the future has become costlier, riskier, and politically fraught.

The consequences extend far beyond spreadsheets. At stake is not only America's energy trajectory but the coherence of the global climate agenda. As the world prepares for another round of climate negotiations, Washington's turn toward tariff-fueled insularity undermines its credibility as a leader in energy transition - or even as a cooperative player.

It is worth remembering that these trade measures are not emerging in isolation. They form part of a larger ideological assault on globalization, multilateralism, and the rules-based economic order. Where once the U.S. championed open markets, it now imposes arbitrary levies and dares others to retaliate. Unsurprisingly, many are doing just that. For an energy sector already contending with decarbonization pressures and shifting consumer behaviors, the additional burden of geopolitical instability is a cruel handicap.

Moreover, the tariffs risk driving capital away from the U.S. precisely. While the administration talks tough about reshoring supply chains, the message to global investors is mixed at best: this is a high-cost, policy-volatile, and increasingly inward-looking market. That message is already reshaping corporate strategy. Companies, uncertain about future tariffs, are shelving ambitious projects and hedging bets on infrastructure spending.

The metal and mining sector - essential to everything from wind turbines to EV batteries - is another casualty. It is estimated that demand for aluminum could drop by nearly 4 million tonnes in 2026, copper by over a million, and steel by 90 million tonnes. Lithium - the miracle element of the green age - also sees a sharp projected decline. These aren't marginal figures. They represent a structural constriction of America's energy future.

Energy development strategies are being rewritten, with flexibility and caution replacing ambition and scale. Risky investments are being pared down. And behind every deferral, every paused project, lies a silent verdict on American policy instability. The tariffs may succeed in achieving one unexpected outcome: not the resurgence of American energy might, but its isolation and decline