By Hasan Muhammad

Editor's Note: The writer is a freelance columnist on international affairs based in Karachi, Pakistan. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of China Economic Net.

Contrary to the pessimistic views of Western critics, China's manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) edged up to 49.7 in June, marking a second consecutive month of improvement. In another layer of affirmation, the Caixin/S&P Global PMI, often a more nuanced barometer of export-oriented activity, crossed the 50-mark into expansionary territory.

While it’s not a meteoric rise, the upward trend is interesting-especially against the backdrop of ongoing trade turmoil, higher U.S. tariffs and a slow global economic adjustment in the wake of the pandemic.

China’s new orders index rose to 50.2, the first sign of expansion after two months in the contraction zone. Among the 21 industries surveyed, 11 reported expansion - a notable uptick from May. Manufacturing production itself climbed to 51.0. They are indicating a broadening recovery. Exporters have pivoted with ingenuity, front-loading shipments and recalibrating toward Southeast Asia and the EU.

Consider the private Caixin PMI, which reached 50.4 in June - a significant leap from May’s 48.3. It’s worth remembering that the Caixin survey, though narrower in scope than the official PMI, often captures the pulse of small and medium-sized enterprises more directly exposed to market volatility. Its findings suggest that new orders and production are strengthening, particularly due to promotional efforts and improved trade conditions. Factory output in June was the highest since November 2024.

The restrained optimism in Beijing is telling. As Goldman Sachs notes, the upcoming Politburo meeting is unlikely to unleash any dramatic stimulus - a sign that the Chinese leadership is content, for now, with the trajectory of recovery. That restraint reflects a longer view: an understanding that recovery need not be theatrical to be real.

Manufacturing and non-manufacturing - point not just to isolated green shoots, but to a carefully nurtured rebalancing. The non-manufacturing index rose to 50.5, with construction activity leaping by 1.8 points. China’s emphasis on infrastructure as a ballast against external shocks remains intact and effective.

None of this is to suggest that China’s path is untroubled. Yet, if the essence of economic health is resilience, China’s industrial and policy engine appears far from sputtering. Instead, it hums - quietly, strategically.

China is growing again - not at the gravity-defying pace of its pre-2010 ascent, but with a maturity born of crisis management, policy learning, and structural transition. The emphasis now is less on speed and more on sustainability. Manufacturing still accounts for roughly 26% of GDP, a figure that underscores its centrality even as China shifts toward consumption and services.

Critics, especially in Washington, prefer to frame China’s every positive indicator as either manipulated or ephemeral. But the data tells its own tale, and the markets have been listening. In a world increasingly defined by the volatility of the unexpected, there is something reassuring in China’s methodical recovery. It may not conform to Western models or media expectations, but it continues to deliver progress where it matters most: stability, supply chain continuity, and a manufacturing base that remains the envy of industrial policy planners from Brussels to Brasília.

The quieter facts speak for themselves. China's economy is not sprinting - but it is walking forward, with purpose and persistence. And in today’s climate, that may well be the most remarkable story of all.