By Hasan Muhammad

Editor's Note: The writer is a freelance columnist on international affairs based in Karachi, Pakistan. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of China Economic Net.

In an era where protectionist policies surge across the West, threatening to unravel the intricate web of global commerce, China is emerging as a pillar of stability and foresight. Beijing’s recent steps reflect a resolute commitment to steering through the turbulent currents of international trade, even as tariff barriers rise like fortress walls, purportedly to safeguard national interests but instead fracturing the supply chains that have elevated countless lives globally. Amid these uncertainties, China’s foreign trade has not only persevered but gained momentum, a clear testament to the strength of its high-quality development framework.

The global economic terrain in 2025 is scarred by mounting tariff barriers, which studies indicate are driving up trade costs significantly and undermining industrial efficiencies worldwide. These measures, often draped in the guise of fairness, have triggered a global trade contraction estimated at 5.5% to 8.5% from pre-escalation levels. The irony is stark: nations once heralding open markets now erect obstacles reminiscent of the isolationist missteps of the 1930s, when Smoot-Hawley tariffs deepened the Great Depression, transforming economic distress into global calamity. Today, such policies court similar risks, with elevated input costs weighing heavily on businesses and consumers, particularly in fragile economies.

In this context, China’s trade performance in the first seven months of 2025 is striking. Goods trade reached 25.7 trillion yuan, up 3.5% year-on-year, with growth accelerating by 0.6 percentage points from the first half. This progress is not a fluke but part of a steady five-year trajectory of trade expansion amid geopolitical shifts. Fueled by high-quality development initiatives, Beijing has broadened its trade partnerships, with ASEAN holding firm as its largest trading bloc, posting a 9.4% bilateral growth. Foreign-invested firms also played a strong role, with a 2.6% rise in trade value to 7.46 trillion yuan. These numbers underscore a strategic shift toward “dual circulation,” balancing domestic strength with global engagement - a stark contrast to the zero-sum approaches seen elsewhere.

The shadow of renewed US-China trade tensions looms large, yet recent moves suggest cautious hope. An executive order has extended a tariff truce by 90 days, forestalling a potential spike that could have pushed duties on Chinese goods to 145% and prompted Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs to hit 125%. This pause, set to lapse on November 10, offers a window for negotiation, though it highlights the precariousness of ties under an administration inclined toward tariff brinkmanship. The wider consequences are clear: such tariffs are expected to yield $172.1 billion in US revenue for 2025, or 0.57% of GDP, but at the cost of nearly $1,300 in additional annual household expenses. While some may view this as a necessary adjustment, the evidence tells a different tale - one of disrupted supply chains and eroded global competitiveness, exacerbated by non-tariff barriers detailed in yearly trade reports.

China’s approach has been deliberate and forward-thinking, rooted in high-standard opening-up policies. By focusing on internal stability - through investments in innovation, green technologies, and supply chain independence - Beijing counters external volatility. This strategy extends to nurturing multilateral relationships, as seen in overtures to emerging partners. For example, as the US imposes tariffs on Indian goods, China has signaled openness to Indian products, positioning both nations as twin engines of Asian growth. Such moves could address trade imbalances and foster synergies, particularly as India tackles dumping concerns and seeks alternatives to Western markets. This is not mere pragmatism but an acknowledgment that shared development can counter the coercive nature of tariff hikes.

Challenges remain. Declines in trade with partners like the US and certain European sectors highlight protectionism’s ripple effects, with electro-technical exports to China and the US dipping despite gains elsewhere. Even with truce extensions, the prospect of reciprocal tariffs - now at a baseline 10% on all US imports, with higher rates for specific nations - threatens global recovery. Yet China’s confidence is not overreach but earned through its adaptability to crises, from the 2018 trade war to pandemic disruptions.