By Hasan Muhammad

Editor's Note: The writer is a freelance columnist on international affairs based in Karachi, Pakistan. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of China Economic Net.

In the world of trade, the noise of container ships and factory floors is slowly being drowned out by something less tangible but far more powerful: the rise of digital commerce. The numbers tell the story. Between 2020 and 2024, digital trade surged from $4.59 trillion to $7.23 trillion, an average annual growth of over 12 percent. By comparison, traditional global trade managed less than 10 percent over the same period. That is not just growth; it is a shift in how the global economy operates.

The latest Global Digital Trade Development Report 2025, compiled by the International Trade Centre and the Global Digital Trade Expo, puts these changes into perspective. What is happening is not merely faster online shopping. It is a fundamental transformation in how nations exchange value, services, and ideas.

That optimism, however, comes with caution. The fourth Global Digital Trade Expo in Hangzhou this September was full of dazzling displays - generative AI writing poems in seconds, robots testing warehouse equipment, multimodal sensors pushing logistics into new territory. The theme, “Deep Integration of Digital Trade and Artificial Intelligence,” reflected both the promise and the pressure. China hosted with flair, showcasing its ambition to lead in everything from robotics to digital entertainment.

At almost the same time, the World Trade Organization issued its 2025 World Trade Report, with a projection that AI could increase global trade in goods and services by nearly 40 percent by 2040. That sounds like a windfall, but the report also warned of widening inequalities. Countries without strong digital infrastructure or skilled workforces could end up left behind, reduced to passive consumers in a marketplace run by others.

China is not shy about presenting itself as a leader in building bridges, not walls. Its Digital Silk Road, an extension of the Belt and Road Initiative, stretches fiber-optic cables and 5G networks into regions that otherwise might remain disconnected. Alibaba and other Chinese platforms help small businesses in Africa and Latin America access markets in Asia. Meanwhile, the United States wrestles with domestic debates over data sovereignty, and the European Union insists on strict privacy rules under laws like the Digital Services Act. All three are central players, but their approaches show different priorities: openness and expansion from China, caution and regulation from the West.

The possibilities are there. Imagine rural cooperatives in Pakistan using AI to forecast crop yields and secure fairer prices on international exchanges. Picture artisans in Bangladesh running virtual showrooms to sell directly to global consumers. These are not fantasies - they are potential outcomes if infrastructure and training are prioritized.

The obstacles are obvious. More than two billion people remain offline, most of them in poorer countries. Data localization laws, fragmented AI regulations, and inconsistent privacy standards slow cross-border flows. But none of these problems are insurmountable. Multilateral institutions like the WTO and the G20 can create common standards. Public–private partnerships can fund broadband expansion. And joint training programs can build the skills needed to compete in a digital-first economy.

China has emphasized inclusive growth in its calls for cooperation, highlighting skill-sharing and technology transfer as part of its agenda. Whether this rhetoric translates into practice remains to be seen, but the emphasis on shared benefit is significant. No country, no matter how advanced, can fully control the future of digital trade on its own.

The world is standing at a tipping point. The outcome depends less on technology itself and more on whether policymakers, businesses, and societies decide to make this revolution inclusive. The real prize is not just trillions of dollars in new trade, but a more balanced and connected global economy.