By Hasan Muhammad

Editor's Note: The writer is a freelance columnist on international affairs based in Karachi, Pakistan. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of China Economic Net.

As 2025 draws to a close, the global economy faces familiar headwinds. Geopolitical tensions simmer, trade barriers rise, and growth in many advanced economies stalls below three percent. Yet one major player stands apart: China.

International institutions, long cautious about the world's second-largest economy, have begun to revise their projections upward. Goldman Sachs now sees China's GDP expanding by five percent this year, up from an earlier estimate of 4.9 percent, with even stronger gains projected for the years ahead. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development followed suit on December 2, lifting its forecast to five percent while holding the global growth outlook steady at 3.2 percent. These adjustments reflect a growing recognition that China remains a pillar of stability amid worldwide uncertainty.

China's economy grew 5.2 percent in the first three quarters, outpacing expectations and putting the official target of around five percent well within reach. Exports have surged, with real growth now expected to hit five to six percent annually over the next few years, compared to prior projections of two to three percent. Chinese manufacturers have captured larger shares in global markets, from electronics to electric vehicles, even as tariffs and supply chain disruptions test resilience.

Policy measures underpin this performance. Fiscal expansion has taken center stage, with initiatives to support household incomes and encourage consumption. Trade-in programs for automobiles and appliances have spurred retail sales, which climbed four percent in the first two months alone. A new financial tool, valued at 500 billion yuan, channels funds directly to domestic demand, offering a buffer through the fourth quarter and into 2026. Monetary easing complements these efforts, targeting inflation control and economic rebalancing. Morgan Stanley highlights how such targeted support will sustain moderate growth next year, fostering a shift toward higher-quality development. These steps address long-standing imbalances, where investment once overshadowed consumption, and now aim to build a more sustainable model.

Yet the upgrades from abroad go beyond numbers; they signal confidence in China's toolkit. Institutions like Deutsche Bank point to the intensified fiscal push as a reliable engine for demand. Standard Chartered has raised its 2026 forecast to 4.6 percent, crediting gains in productivity and export durability. Even the International Monetary Fund, in a mid-year update, boosted its emerging markets outlook largely on improved views of China.

Hurdles are real, but they do not eclipse the broader momentum. The economy's inherent strengths - vast scale, robust supply chains, and adaptive enterprises - remain intact. A spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics emphasized that stable operations and high-quality progress continue unabated.

Looking to 2026, the path forward builds on these foundations. Advisers anticipate Beijing will hold the growth target at around five percent, aligning with the launch of the 15th Five-Year Plan. This blueprint prioritizes strategic industries - biomedicine, 6G, and green transformation - while urging regional variation to avoid one-size-fits-all approaches.

Critics may argue that export reliance risks trade backlash, especially with surpluses hitting records and partners urging Beijing to consume more. Protectionism could flare if global demand falters. But China's diversification - shifting shipments to Europe, Southeast Asia, and Australia - mitigates these threats. Services trade, up 7.5 percent through October to nearly 6.58 trillion yuan, adds balance. Urban infrastructure upgrades, integrating AI and security, promise efficiency gains that ripple outward.

In a fragmented world, China's trajectory offers a counterpoint. Upward revisions from Goldman Sachs, the OECD, and others are not mere tweaks; they affirm a system capable of navigating shocks. The economy's resilience, fueled by policy agility and innovation, stabilizes not just itself but the global order. As 2025 ends, the message is clear: doubt China at your peril. The fundamentals hold firm, and the potential endures.