By Zafar Hussain

BEIJING, Feb. 8 (China Economic Net)- China has stepped up dry fruit exports to Pakistan during 2024-2025, helping offset supply gaps after border closures and ongoing tensions disrupted Pakistan's traditional overland imports from Afghanistan, according to trade data and industry sources.

For years, Pakistan relied heavily on Afghanistan for key dry fruits such as almonds, raisins, apricots, pistachios, and figs, largely due to geographical proximity and lower transportation costs. However, border closures, security concerns, and transit uncertainty have sharply reduced cross-border flows, tightening supply and pushing prices upward in wholesale markets.

Against this backdrop, China’s dry fruit exports to Pakistan rose from about $36.6 million in 2024 to $42.4 million in 2025, a year-on-year increase of nearly 16 percent, providing timely relief to traders and consumers, according to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China (GACC).

“China has become a critical alternative supplier,” said Shazia Mateen, Director of Rishad Mateen & Co., one of Pakistan’s leading fruit and vegetable importers and exporters. “The increase in exports helped Pakistan cushion the impact of disrupted regional trade routes.”

GACC data showed that walnuts remained the backbone of exports. Chinese walnut shipments reached around $31.25 million in 2024 and increased to $33.96 million in 2025, reflecting steady demand from Pakistan’s wholesale, bakery, and confectionery sectors. Shazia noted that consistent quality and predictable delivery schedules made Chinese walnuts a preferred option during periods of uncertainty.

“Pakistan traditionally imports walnuts from the United States, but higher taxes this year made U.S. walnuts costlier than Chinese alternatives, while border issues with Afghanistan further limited supply,” Shazia Mateen said. “With the China–Pakistan Free Trade Agreement in place and limited options due to regional disruptions, Pakistan sourced most of its walnuts—and green raisins—from China, with more than 50 percent of walnut imports arriving by road, making it a strong year for China’s walnut exports.”

Chinese customs data showed that raisins recorded the strongest growth momentum. Exports of dried grapes rose from approximately $5.29 million in 2024 to $8.38 million in 2025, driven by rising household consumption and growing demand from the food processing industry. Improved logistics links from western China and smoother customs clearance procedures were cited as key factors behind the surge.

GACC data further showed that, in addition to walnuts and raisins, China also supplied almonds, dried dates, apricots, figs, and mixed dry fruit products, diversifying Pakistan’s import basket. While these items accounted for smaller shares individually, together they contributed to broadening supply and reducing dependence on a single source.

“Previously, when Afghan supplies slowed, prices would spike almost immediately,” said Muhammad Aslam, a dry fruit wholesaler in Lahore. “Chinese imports helped fill the gap and kept prices relatively stable during peak demand periods.”

Market data from major Pakistani cities showed that wholesale prices for several dry fruits stabilized in late 2024 and 2025 compared with earlier volatility, despite higher global transportation costs. Traders attributed this stability to larger shipment volumes, reliable delivery schedules, and competitive pricing from Chinese exporters.

Pakistani officials also pointed to improved trade facilitation. A representative from Pakistan Customs said agricultural imports from China benefited from “more efficient inspection procedures and improved cold-chain logistics,” reducing delays and spoilage risks. The use of the Khunjerab–Sost border crossing has facilitated uninterrupted trade and travel throughout the year, bolstering economic activity and fostering stronger ties between the two countries.

Experts view the trend as part of a broader shift under CPEC Phase II, where agriculture and food security are gaining prominence alongside infrastructure cooperation. Beyond direct trade, both sides are also discussing collaboration in processing, packaging, quality standards, and e-commerce channels to further strengthen supply chains.

“Agricultural trade may seem small compared with large projects, but it has an immediate impact on people’s livelihoods,” said Philip, an Honorary Investment Counsellor for Pakistan’s Board of Investment (BoI) in China. “In this case, it helped Pakistan manage a sudden regional shock.”

As regional dynamics remain complex, he said China’s expanded role in Pakistan’s dry fruit market demonstrates how practical economic cooperation can stabilize prices, secure supplies, and support shared growth, even amid geopolitical challenges.