by Wang Kai

The year 2026 might be monumental for China's commercial space sector as industry players anticipate key breakthroughs in recoverable rockets.

Building on the momentum of LANDSPACE’s nearly successful first-stage recovery of its Zhuque-3 rocket at the end of last year, more models are expected to make their debut flights in the coming months, from Galactic Energy’s PALLAS-2, Space Pioneer's Tianlong-3 which has completed ground testing for “delivering 36 satellites in one launch”, and CAS-SPACE’s Kinetica-2, etc. Deep Blue Aerospace’s Nebula-1 is now ready for launch at its pad in Shandong, a province eastern China. SEPOCH, which has completed offshore flight recovery tests with its reusable product, aims for a successful orbital launch and recovery by year end.

Earlier this year, InterstellOr, China’s first commercial "human spaceflight technology" company, announced that over 20 people from all walks of life, including actor Johnny Huang, academicians, CEOs, and entrepreneurs have signed up for China’s first-ever space trip due in 2028 at RMB 3 million.

Companies, as well as investors, are geared up for the fast track. According to a research report, the sector saw a 32% year-on-year growth in total financing in 2025, reaching RMB 18.6 billion.

Just a decade ago, fewer than 10 private companies were operating in China's commercial space sector. Today, that number has surpassed 600. In December 2025, China launched its first specialized fund. Currently, at least five companies are progressing towards public listings. LOX-Methane rocket developer i-Space, the first private company in China to launch a carrier rocket into orbit, raised a record-breaking 5.037 billion RMB last month.

In an outlook for the next five years, Mingyuan Technology Innovation Center forecasts under the pressure of tight deadlines tied for constellation deployments, China’s commercial space launch frequency is expected to surge from 54 launches in 2025 to approximately 860 by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of 74%. Earlier this year, the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) website revealed that between December 25 and 31 last year, China submitted a request for orbital resources for an additional 203,000 satellites-- its largest-ever international frequency and orbit filing to date.

Racing towards recoverable rockets

For the first time, aerospace is listed as an “emerging pillar industry” in China’s government work report submitted Thursday to the National People’s Congress (NPC) for deliberation.

Industry forecasts predict a significant rise in the frequency of launches this year as China’s reusable rockets enter the recovery verification phase.

At the end of 2025, LANDSPACE’s Zhuque-3 and CASC’s Long March 12A successfully completed their maiden flights, with the former missing its rocket's first-stage recovery by just 40 meters and aiming for another try in the second quarter this year. Despite the setback, professionals believe that it successfully validated the key technologies for liquid oxygen-methane reusable rockets, marking a milestone as private rocket companies gradually build up real, usable capacity.

Experts predict China’s reusable rocket technology will evolve in three phases: Phase 1 (2025-2027) will focus on validating core technologies like vertical landing, attitude control, and landing cushioning. Phase 2 (2027-2029) aims for a recovery success rate over 90%, with rockets reused 20+ times and costs reduced by 50%. By Phase 3 (2029-2030), reusable rockets will be commercially applied.

Currently, the launch cost for reusable rockets is more or less RMB 100,000 per kilogram, with a target of reducing it to RMB 20,000.

Companies are cutting costs by iterating designs to improve recovery success and reduce hardware amortization. According to a manager at 3D printer developer ZRapid Tech, the adoption of 3D printing, which can produce up to 85% of weight in rockets’ engines, reduces component manufacturing costs by 20-30%. In addition, optimizing launch processes and ground support systems will boost launch frequency, spreading fixed costs. The China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology is building the country's first commercial space testing platform, focusing on reusable rockets and new aerospace products.

Research estimates by 2030, as China’s low-Earth orbit constellation becomes more established, it is expected that the cost of launching reusable rockets will drop to under RMB 10,000 per kilogram, bringing the country’s capabilities to the frontier of international standards.

Sky Isn't the Limit: The Constellation Plan

In 2026, China’s satellite internet constellations are expected to undergo high-density networking, building on the 200+ satellites already launched.

"Remote sensing represents the final phase in commercial space. Currently, it accounts for about 30-40% in global commercial space applications. We expect this figure to reach 60-70%," said Mr. Guan, Manager at Beijing TianHui Aerospace Information Technology, in an interview with China Economic Net.

Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite internet represents a crucial direction in commercial space at this stage. Unlike traditional geostationary satellites, LEO satellites offer lower latency, reduced link loss, and a simpler structure, making them ideal for large-scale deployment and global communications.

"Drawing from our experience in providing agricultural satellite monitoring services, satellites from Europe and the U.S. with 4-meter resolution are priced around RMB 30 per square kilometer. In contrast, China can offer the same services at half the cost. The larger the monitored area, the lower the cost per unit," he added.

Miniaturized, modularized, and componentized satellites have significantly reduced costs and shortened development cycles, Mr. Wang, a Manager of CubeSat developer ZeroG Lab said. “Back in 2018, a remote sensing CubeSat could cost a million dollars. Now, we can deliver a satellite in orbit for less than 0.7 million. In addition to mass production, we also focus on system integration to make satellites smaller and lighter, while maintaining their overall performance, which in turn reduces launch costs,” he said.

“Speed of delivery and high cost-effectiveness are key strengths for China in this field,” he observes.

According to the China Association for Geospatial Industry and Sciences, the country had over 640 civilian remote sensing satellites in orbit as of 2025, positioning it as the world’s second-largest player in this domain. So far, China Telecom has joined forces with major mobile phone brands such as Huawei, Honor, Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo in launching around 30 terminal products that support direct satellite connection.

"The next step involves more technical iterations driven by AI, from visible light and multispectral to hyperspectral and microwave data, with a focus on serving various industries," said Mr. Guan.

In November 2025, Beijing announced plans to build a large-scale space data center to move massive AI computing power into space.

"As launch technology advances and the number of satellites increases, our network coverage becomes more comprehensive, and costs continue to decrease. We also collect more data, train more models, and refine accuracy, further lowering costs. Eventually, we envision providing tailored data for each user, making remote sensing services more accessible to small businesses and even individuals," Guan envisions.