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High British inflation points to gradual rise in bank rate
Last Updated: 2018-07-19 05:10 | Xinhua
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British inflation remained above its 2 percent target, according to figures released on Wednesday, but core inflation figures revealed a downward pressure.

Consumer price index (CPI) inflation remained at 2.4 percent, above the 2 percent central bank target, in June.

This surprised economic experts who had expected the global surge in oil prices, with the benchmark Brent Crude price up 67 percent over the past year, to make its effect in the data released by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) and as a result the consensus expectation was for a rise to 2.6 percent.

Howard Archer, chief economic adviser to the EY ITEM Club, an economic forecasting group, told Xinhua that CPI's failure to rise as anticipated was "a significant downside surprise, given the sizeable upward pressures from fuel prices, which rose sharply between May and June this year, but fell between those months in 2017, and domestic energy bills."

Higher recent oil prices did feed through to the data, with energy CPI rising 2.8 percentage points over the month from May to rise 8.6 percent annually.

However clothing and footwear prices had their highest monthly fall since 2012, as good weather throughout June encouraged sales and the early onset of the sales season, offsetting the inflationary pressures from energy.

While CPI continues above the BoE's primary target of 2 percent, fuelling calls for a rate rise, core inflation fell from 2.5 percent annually to the end of May to 2.0 percent to the end of June.

Archer said: "With core pressures so soft, headline inflation is likely to drop back further once the temporary effects of higher petrol prices recede."

That period has seen a small rise in the bank rate, a reversal of the immediate post-Brexit referendum cut carried out in August 2016 of 25 basis points to reach the record low of 0.25 percent, which has helped to lower inflation.

It has also seen the sharp inflationary effects of sterling's post-Brexit reduction of nearly 20 percent pass through the inflation figures, which now show a downward pressure as a result.

The rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the central bank, the Bank of England (BoE), meets at the beginning of August.

Strong employment figures on Tuesday along with subdued growth in wages, which slipped 0.1 percentage point but still remained above inflation at 2.6 percent per year, were not by themselves enough to strengthen an argument for a bank rate rise.

Archer said: "Today's release figures are unlikely to change the MPC's thinking ahead of the August meeting. But, coming on the back of another subdued reading for wage growth in yesterday's labor market release, the data continues to undermine the narrative around a tighter labor market driving up wages and prices. Therefore, the pace of interest rates hikes is likely to remain very gradual."

Suren Thiru, head of economics at the industry representative body the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), said that the rise in global oil prices would be felt in higher inflation but rising growth was "likely to be temporary, and inflation should resume its downward trajectory once the impact of the pick-up in oil prices subsidies."

Thiru said that comments and speeches from members of the MPC pointed to a strong wish among some members for a rate rise at the August meeting: "Given the recent hawkish rhetoric from members of the MPC, we currently expect that interest rates will rise once this year, with the prospect of an August rate hike very much on the table.

"However, with inflation holding steady, wage growth sluggish and economic activity subdued, the case for tightening monetary policy continues to look very weak."

(Editor:富博)

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High British inflation points to gradual rise in bank rate
Source:Xinhua | 2018-07-19 05:10
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