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News Analysis: Slow European industrial production hurting Italy more than most
Last Updated: 2019-01-17 09:36 | Xinhua
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Industrial production is slumping in the biggest countries in the eurozone, according to the latest statistics, but the impact might be strongest in Italy, where slow economic growth and political uncertainty are making the country vulnerable.

According to analytics company Trading Economics, industrial production in Germany fell 1.9 percent in November (the latest figures available) compared to the previous month. In Italy, industrial production was 1.6 percent lower. France saw production fall by 1.3 percent.

Italy's economy contracted by 0.1 percent in the third quarter of last year, and the latest industrial production figures indicate the economy could shrink further in the fourth quarter.

Economists told Xinhua the weak industrial production figures showed Germany and France, the two eurozone economies bigger than Italy, might produce negative economic growth when fourth quarter figures are released. But the slowdown is particularly worrisome for Italy, economists said.

"The slowdown was more severe in Germany than it was in Italy, but the consequences will be worse for Italy," Mario Seminerio, an investment manager and frequent commentator on economic issues, said in an interview.

Seminerio said the Italian economy was already on its heels due to slowing exports and years of sluggish economic growth. Additionally, he said, worries about political friction between Italy and the European Union after a two-month standoff over the country's 2019 budget are making investors nervous.

"Worries are driving interest rates higher on government debt which makes borrowing money more expensive for the government," Seminerio said. "Lower industrial production is another blow."

Gianfranco Viesti, an economist at the University of Bari, said the weak data was concerning, though he cautioned against reading too much into figures for a single month.

"We have to look for trends: I'll be worried if industrial production falls again in December," Viesti told Xinhua. "Look at the upcoming figures for unemployment and for consumer and business confidence."

Viesti did say predicted indicators could have a knock-on effect. If economic growth is weaker than forecast, for example, that would drive up the 2019 budget deficit as a percentage of gross domestic product.

Italy's clash with European officials was over deficit levels. Italy wanted the deficit in this year's budget to total 2.4 percent of gross domestic product, but after weeks of negotiations the government of Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte agreed to a reduced deficit of 2.05 percent.

If economic growth for the year is far below the 1.0 to 1.5 percent levels included in the budget document, it would make the deficit ratio grow in gross domestic product terms.

"Most multilateral organizations are predicting the Italian economy will grow 0.5 percent this year," Viesti said. "The government is hoping the economy will grow faster than the multilateral organizations predict. But unexpectedly low industrial production makes that less likely."

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