by Yasir Habib Khan

Bad patch is gone. Pakistan is beginning new economic life in the wake of successful year spanning from 8th JCC to 9th JCC, successive three visits of Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan to China, fresh flow of investment from Beijing and global players, world’s financial institutions’ positive reports, promising economic indicators, opening up new era of monetary management, financial discipline and reforms.

Since Pakistan PTI government assumed the charge, two JCC came to effect. 8th JCC matured a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on industrial cooperation and established a cooperative framework for socio-economic development. The two sides agreed to broaden the scope of CPEC and further strengthen the JCC mechanism through increased frequency of exchanges.

9th JCC acknowledged the new milestones including formation of CPEC authority, finalization of Gwadar Master Plan, preliminary design of ML-1 project, operationalization of Gwadar Port and free zone, inauguration of M5, CPHGC power plant and new joint ventures.

Journey of PT-JCC one year rejuvenated economic activities. Resultantly, foreign investments rose to 239 percent during four months of this year-2019 as compared to the last year. Norway invested US$264 million while an inflow of US$122 million came from China. In terms of investment flow in various sectors, US$267 million were pumped into the telecom sector, US$72 million were invested in electrical machinery purpose and US$41 million were injected into oil and gas sector.

According to Pakistan Minister for Economic Affairs Hammad Azhar said current account deficit in the first quarter of the current fiscal year declined by 65 percent, fiscal deficit dropped by 50 percent, primary budget balance noted a surplus of 385 billion rupees, foreign investment of 350 million dollars came to Pakistan, and foreign exchange reserves witnessed an increase of 650 million dollars. The minister said collection of Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has increased and tax base enhanced by 55 percent and growing circular debt brought down from 38 billion to 12 billion rupees per month.

Trade deficit dipped by 34 percent in the first four months of current fiscal year followed by a paltry increase in exports and a double digit drop in imports of non-essential products.

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) presented a positive outlook with bullish trend as KSE-100 index closed at 37583.89 points with positive change of 340.69 points (0.91%) last Friday. A total of 369,038,836 shares were traded compared to the trade of 336,365,942 shares during the previous day, whereas the value of shares traded during the day stood at Rs9.587 billion compared to Rs10.158 billion during last trading day.

Total 400 companies' transacted shares in the Stock Market Friday, out of which 296 recorded gain and 94 sustained losses whereas the share price of 10 companies remained unchanged.

Pakistan is predicted to be among six fastest growing economies of the world by 2030, says a report by HSBC, one of the world’s largest banking and financial services company.

HSBC report titled "The World in 2030" says that "five Asian economies will be among the world’s six fastest-growing economies – Bangladesh, India, Philippines, Pakistan and Vietnam". HSBC ranks Pakistan at number 4 in terms of GDP growth till 2030 and expects Pakistan to rise from the world's 40th biggest economy in 2018 in nominal terms to the world's 30th largest economy by 2030. Pakistan economy does face some short-term headwinds because of its balance of payments crisis requiring an IMF bailout. However, longer term prospects for growth look good.

The HSBC report authors look at 75 economies in developing, emerging and frontier markets to make long-term projections of their growth potential and changes in global rankings. They conclude that emerging economies will account for roughly 50 percent of global GDP by 2030 – a "seismic shift from half of that in 2000".

The report forecasts that Asia will continue to be the biggest driver of global economic growth and highlights that "China will be the world’s largest economy in 2030, overtaking the US, while India - currently the seventh biggest - will be third, pushing Germany and Japan down a position".

Pakistan economy does face some short-term headwinds because of its balance of payments crisis requiring an IMF bailout. However, longer term prospects for growth look good. Improved security situation and rising investments, particularly the China Pakistan Economic Corridor or CPEC-related investments led by China, are helping accelerate the economic growth in the country.

The World Bank (WB) has also recognized Pakistan amongst top 10 economies that improve the most on the ease of doing business after putting in place regulatory reform.

On Doing Business report, World Bank rated Pakistan at number six amongst the top 20 global reformers. It has also acknowledged top 10 economies including Pakistan that improved the most on the ease of doing business after implementing regulatory reforms. As per the report, Pakistan secured 108 position from 136 showing tangible improvement of 28 ranks.

Since the launch of DB report in 2002, it is the first time that Pakistan rose to 28 points in one year with 06 reforms. This report measures the performance in ease of doing business in 190 countries.

Meanwhile Chinese snack company, Bestore, inked a deal with Pakistan pine nut provider worth 300 million yuan ($42 million) as the company furthers overseas efforts with opportunities brought by the Belt and Road Initiative.

The Sino-Pak Tire Manufacturing Joint Venture plans to invest $ 600 million. Project is highly likely to be executed in Gwadar. Groundbreaking is expected to be in mid-2020.

Pakistan’s exports to China steadily increased by 3.93 percent during the first eight months of the current fiscal year compared to the corresponding period of last year. State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reported that overall exports to China were recorded at $1150.523 million. All these signs augur well for Pakistan economy and it is expected that China may remain leading driver to keep improving Pakistan economic outlook.

Yasir Habib Khan is Special Corresponding to China Economic Net (CEN).He is also president of Institute of International relations and media research (IIRMR).