by Cheng Xizhong

Cheng Xizhong, special commentator of China Economic Net, visiting professor at Southwest University of Political Science and Law, senior fellow of the Charhar Institute, former Defense Attache in South Asian countries, former UN Senior Military Observer [Photo/China Economic Net]

BEIJING, Feb. 26 (China Economic Net) - After Donald Trump was elected as a president, India immediately sent him an invitation to visit India, but there was no response. In the past more than three years since Donald Trump came to power, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has visited the United States two times, so Donald Trump should have returned the visit.

Trump is a president who attaches great importance to practical interests. He will not visit any country unless there are practical benefits. Indian and American media recently disclosed that on the eve of Trump's visit to India, the two sides reached an arms deal of about 4.5 billion U.S. dollars, including India's purchase of multi-purpose helicopters, air defense radars, air-to-air missiles, etc. from the US, and the two sides are also discussing a big deal of fighters worth 10 billion U.S. dollars. Therefore, I believe the arms deal might be one of the important reasons for Trump's decision to visit India. In addition, the American presidential elections are about to begin and nowadays, Indian American voters are increasingly influential and generally support the Democratic Party. For many years republicans have been striving for the support from Indian American groups.

Since many years, trade friction between the United States and India have been on the rise, and problem has become more serious recently. However, this has not affected the bilateral trade between the two countries. The bilateral trade volume between the United States and India reached 87.95 billion U.S. dollars in the financial year 2018-2019, which exceeded the bilateral trade volume between China and India in the same period. The United States has now become India's largest trading partner. With the deepening of economic ties between the United States and India, it is expected that the bilateral trade volume will further be expanded.

About the trade friction between the United States and India, on one hand, the United States is very optimistic about the Indian market, because India is a huge market with a population of 1.3 billion. On the other hand, the United States feels that India is a difficult business partner. India's high tariffs are five times average level of the United States. There are many institutional and legal barriers in India, which seriously restrict foreign capital's investment in India. President Trump is a businessman, he is very smart. I think Prime Minister Modi and Indian businessmen are also very clever. Both sides are very smart. So, it will be very difficult to reach any trade agreement.

In regard to the free trade agreement, if India and the United States can sign it, the level of trade between the two countries will definitely increase substantially. However, I remember when Modi met Trump on an international occasion not long ago, he said, "let's work together for this, but I don't know whether what we have done is enough or not". According to my observation, it is very difficult for Modi to make substantive concessions under strong domestic pressure. For example, in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), Modi announced his withdrawal at the last critical moment of the negotiation. This shows that India does not have enough strength and courage to participate in international free competition. I think it is more difficult for India to reach the free trade agreement with the United States, because the economic power gap between India and the United States is too large.

I think Trump's visit to India is more symbolic than practical. Since Trump came to power, he launched "the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy", hoping that India will play a "pillar role" in " the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy". However, India has been implementing the non-aligned policy since independence, and has its own independence in diplomacy. So, I don’t think India will follow the United States completely.

India and the United States have both cooperation and differences, and their differences on many major international issues are very obvious. India attaches great importance to its relations with all major powers in the world and hopes to benefit from it. As for how India and the United States share the geographical interests in South Asia, I think the pragmatism of the United States is too obvious. India will see it very clearly, and will always be very alert on every action the United States takes in South Asia and even in the whole Asia-Pacific region.
 
Cheng Xizhong, special commentator of China Economic Net, visiting professor at Southwest University of Political Science and Law, senior fellow of the Charhar Institute, former Defense Attache in South Asian countries, former UN Senior Military Observer