By Antonis Tsimplakis

 

 

Energy cargoes are expected to set the “pace” in maritime transport, at least in the next year. According to the latest analysis by Clarksons, maritime trade up to 2023 is expected to increase by up to 4% for energy cargo transport. And this applies to oil, liquefied natural gas and even coal. The non-energy sectors are also expected to register an upward trend, but only by 0.2%.

 

After a steady “post-Covid” recovery for maritime trade in 2021, 2022 has brought a range of increasing economic and geopolitical headwinds. As a result, performance is not uniform across shipping markets. Notably, there was a significant divergence between trade in “energy” and “non-energy” products.

 

In the second case, in markets such as containerships or the transport of cargoes such as grain or iron ore, it fell less severely in 2020 (peaking at -2.9% y-o-y in Q2 2020), before recovering to 5% over 2019 levels (+8% y/y). Containerships were boosted by a shift in demand to spending on services and goods, while iron ore and grain trades also performed remarkably.

 

The trend in these markets is poor relative to 2021, with container trade growth slipping (-1.9% y/y Q1-Q3 2022). Iron ore (-2.6% this year) has also softened, while Ukraine’s “lost” shipments drag on grain trade. The Russia-Ukraine conflict limits regional bulk maritime trade (-2.1% y/y Q1). Overall, maritime trade (excluding energy products) fell 3% year-on-year in the third quarter of the year, although it is still 0.3% above 2019 levels.

 

The energy trading basket, by contrast, underperformed in 2020, falling 10% year-on-year due to a sharp drop in oil demand for transportation and pressure on coal use as electricity demand slowed.

 

 

Gains are described as “clear” by Clarksons in both oil and gas (albeit modest in tonne-mile terms), while seaborne coal shipments have also increased.

 

The energy basket rose 2.3% year-on-year through the third quarter and was just 2% below 2019 levels. In addition, analysts note, changing trade patterns as a result of the Russia-Ukraine conflict are supporting demand with a 4% increase predicted for energy products (non-energy: 0.2%).

 

So, after a strong 2021 for “non-energy” trade (which helped support containerships and dry bulk), now energy trade is “outperforming” as everyone now focuses on energy security.