C919 takeoff heralds market for China-built planes worth $139 billion by 2043; focus shifts to breakthroughs in core tech

The C919, China's first domestically developed narrow-body large passenger jet, which was put into commercial operation in late May, is expected to further boost the capacity of the air travel market and drive the comprehensive upgrade of the country's civil aviation industrial chain, experts said.

Since May 29, Shanghai-based China Eastern Airlines has been using a C919 aircraft on its regular round-trip flights between Shanghai Hongqiao International Airport and Chengdu Tianfu International Airport in Sichuan province.

The State-owned China Eastern, one of the largest domestic carriers in terms of fleet size, operates more than 20 daily flights between Shanghai and Chengdu. The new C919 aircraft will allow the carrier to become more unhurried in arranging its flights on the route, it said.

With more C919 aircraft likely to enter the commercial passenger flight market, China Eastern will use the model built by Commercial Aircraft Corp of China for more domestic flights. The airline said Sichuan and Chongqing in Southwest China are building a world-class airport cluster, and the region presents significant growth prospects as air travel demand is surging.

"COMAC's C919 production capacity is on growth track, and we are optimistic about the development of the large aircraft industrial chain in China. In the next 20 years, the value of orders for domestically developed aircraft is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan ($137.7 billion).More domestically developed components in the industrial chain are expected to emerge," said a research report of Zheshang Securities.

So far, COMAC has received orders for around 1,200 planes of the C919 model from home and abroad. These include both confirmed and intended orders, the company said.

As the air travel market continues to recover from the negative impact of COVID-19 and the number of air travelers grows fast in China, the C919 is expected to help meet rising demand.

The C919 aircraft model, which made its maiden flight in 2017 after a decade of development, received its type certificate, or design approval, in September last year. Comparable to the Airbus A320 and the Boeing B737 series, the C919 has 158 to 168 seats and a flying range of 4,075-5,555 kilometers.

"The manufacture of the C919 will help guide upstream and downstream industries in Shanghai to better lay out their businesses, and give full play to an agglomeration effect. Thus, the aircraft manufacturer, suppliers of parts and the local economy can all achieve growth," said Lin Zhijie, an aviation industry analyst and a columnist at Carnoc, a major civil aviation website in China.

After China optimized its pandemic response measures and restarted quarantine-free international travel in January, the country's air travel market has been on track to a steady recovery. In May, the sector transported 5.2 million people, up 2.8 percent over April, and reached 94.8 percent of the level recorded in the same period of 2019 before the pandemic, according to the Civil Aviation Administration of China.

With China's peak season of air travel arriving in summer, domestic carriers have ramped up efforts to launch or resume more flights to meet growing demand. For the period from June 20 to Oct 10, Guangzhou-based China Southern Airlines plans to add more than 12,000 flights and bring its total number of flights operating during the period to over 250,000. Stated differently, China Southern will operate 2,212 flights per day on average during the 113-day period.

During summer, China Southern plans to add about 150 flights daily on average. Particularly, the carrier will add more flights that connect major cities with popular tourism destinations.

Han Wensheng, general manager of China Southern, said the carrier is paying close attention to the C919 aircraft and maintaining constant communication with COMAC. It will follow relevant procedures to advance subsequent work regarding the potential purchase of more C919 aircraft.

For its international routes, China Southern recently launched flights that connect Beijing Daxing International Airport with London's Heathrow Airport. It also resumed flights that connect Guangzhou, Guangdong province, and Rome, as well as flights that connect Shenzhen, Guangdong province, and Sydney. The airline also increased the frequency of its flights that connect Guangzhou with Paris and Sydney.

China Southern said it has resumed nearly half of international flights compared with the pre-pandemic period. These flights cover markets like Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea, Australia and Europe.

From July 1 to Aug 31, Tianjin Airlines plans to operate more than 200 routes, and launch flights to four new cities, including Nantong and Yangzhou in Jiangsu province. The carrier will also launch new flights or increase the frequency of flights that connect Chongqing and Lijiang, Yunnan province; Tianjin and Kunming, Yunnan province; and Xi'an, Shaanxi province, and Guilin, Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region.

With international traffic and domestic air travel back to the pre-pandemic levels, US aircraft manufacturer Boeing Co projected in late June that global demand for 42,595 new commercial jets is expected by 2042, valued at $8 trillion.

"The aviation industry has demonstrated resilience and adaptability after unprecedented disruption, with airlines responding to challenges, simplifying their fleets, improving efficiency and capitalizing on resurgent demand," said Brad McMullen, Boeing's senior vice-president of commercial sales and marketing.

Looking to the future of the air travel market, the latest forecast reflects further evolution of passenger traffic tied to global growth of the middle-income group, investments in sustainability, and continued growth of low-cost carriers, McMullen said.

Particularly, the Asia-Pacific market is expected to represent more than 40 percent of global demand, with half of that coming from China. In the next 20 years, new single-aisle airplanes will account for more than 75 percent of all new deliveries, up slightly from the 2022 outlook, and totaling more than 32,000 airplanes, Boeing forecast.

Facing a vast international market, the C919 still needs to continuously consolidate its foundation in industrial chain upgrading, market-oriented expansion and commercial operation for further development, industry experts said.

"Airlines should provide timely and comprehensive feedback to COMAC about their experiences in subsequent commercial flights involving the C919, and support COMAC and relevant suppliers in gradually improving more technical details," said Li Xiaojin, a professor of aviation economics at Civil Aviation University in Tianjin.

"COMAC should also seek breakthroughs in more core technologies. The proportion of self-developed components in the overall value chain of the C919 is not high enough, especially due to the lack of materials and technologies in the manufacture of some parts like aviation engine blades. Breaking those bottlenecks will be key to further mass production, delivery and cost controls," Li said.

The C919 is not only designed to meet the development demand of the civil aviation industry, but can help drive significant progress in areas like new materials, modern manufacturing, advanced propulsion system and automatic control; what's more, it can drive the growth of numerous high-tech industries in China, Li said.