By Paris Tsirigotis

 

 

In the June-July 2024 period, the shipping company WeberSeas registered contracts for 89 new vessels with a capacity of 1.2 million TEUs.

 

This is the highest rate of orders since the pandemic period, according to freight brokers.

 

Based on the same sources, the order book currently accounts for 22% of the fleet in water in terms of tonnage. “The fleet is growing rapidly as new deliveries hit a record,” WeberSeas noted, estimating growth of 10% by the end of the year.

 

In the seven-month period of 2024, 144 orders for containerships have been placed, as indicated in the latest monthly report of the shipping brokerage Xclusiv Shipbrokers (data up to the end of July).

 

ULCVs, VLCVs and neopanamaxes lead the activity, with contracts recorded for 48, 28 and 27 vessels, respectively.

 

Shipping broker MB Shipbrokers pointed out that new vessels have reached 1.5 million TEUs year-to-date, “well above our estimates at the start of the year.”

 

“We expect strong continued demand for new vessels in the remainder of 2024,” the analysts said, expecting 2.2 million TEUs of ships to be placed on order this year.

 

The same sources noted that the delivery times now offered by the yards extend to the end of 2027, with some exceptions.

 

The Xclusiv Shipbrokers report revealed that the active containership fleet currently consists of 6,464 ships, with a total capacity of 29.68 million TEUs, while the orderbook consists of 709 ships, with a capacity of 6.62 million TEUs. 

 

 

The medium-term outlook for the dry bulk market is positive, according to analysts.

 

More specifically, Petros Pappas, head of Star Bulk, the largest dry cargo shipping company listed on NASDAQ, sees four factors that strengthen the bulk carrier industry.

 

The needs to transport cargo such as grain, coal, and iron ore remain at high levels, while despite the global geopolitical uncertainties, the small order book favorable to the market, the active fleet of bulk carriers that is constantly growing, but also the strict environmental regulations, which will reduce the efficiency of non-eco ships, give impetus to the market.

 

The managing director of the company, which has 161 ships in the water and another six under construction, outlined the factors affecting the market of bulk carriers.

 

New orders

 

The order book has grown slightly over the past two years, he said, but it still stands at a comparatively low 9.8% of the fleet.

 

Regarding the dismantling of older ships, Pappas noted: “Ships over 20 and 15 years old amount to 9% and 21.9% of the fleet respectively, while prices for recycling have stabilized at high levels and are expected to trigger the sale of excess and energy-inefficient tonnage during seasonal downturns in the coming years.

 

Meanwhile, the average sailing speed of the dry cargo fleet has stabilized at lower levels between 11.1 and 11.2 knots during the past six months due to inflated fuel costs and environmental regulations, including the EEXI and CII green indices, which are increasingly incentivizing slow sailing and retrofitting and are expected to moderate supply in the coming years.”

 

Middle East

 

At the same time, he estimated that there is a high probability that port congestion will increase on an annual basis during the second half of 2024, with a positive effect on the balance of supply and demand.

 

In addition, Pappas noted that rising tensions in the Red Sea from late 2023 continue to cause severe shortfalls for trade, despite a partial recovery in dry cargo transits in the Panama Canal, which are expected to be fully restored by the end of the year.

 

As a result, nominal fleet growth is unlikely to exceed 3% per annum over the next two years, even assuming scrapping activity remains at current low levels.

 

2024-2025 forecasts

 

According to Clarkson's, total dry bulk trade is forecast to grow by 2.6% and 0.7% in tonnes during 2024 and 2025 and by 4.4% and 0.5% in tonnes-miles, respectively.

 

Dry bulk demand has been recovering for the past three quarters, which is expected to continue amid lower commodity prices and expectations of easing monetary policy.

 

Iron ore trade is expected to expand by 3.1% in tonnes and 5.6% in tonne-miles during 2024.