by Hummam Sheikh Ali

DAMASCUS, July 18 (Xinhua) -- A sudden eruption of violence in Syria's southern province of Sweida has triggered a complex and escalating crisis, exposing the deep fragility of Syria's stability just six months after the collapse of the previous government and sending shockwaves across the region.

Over the past week, Sweida has witnessed some of the deadliest intra-Syrian clashes in years. The fighting, initially sparked by a local dispute between the Druze community and Bedouin tribesmen, quickly escalated into a full-blown urban conflict involving Syrian government forces.

By Thursday, nearly 600 people were reported killed, including dozens of civilians and hundreds of fighters from all sides, according to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR).

As tensions escalated, Israel, which portrayed itself as a protector of the Druze community in Syria, launched a series of airstrikes, targeting Syrian military sites in Damascus and Sweida.

State-run SANA news agency said one of the latest raids hit the outskirts of Sweida city on Thursday, following earlier strikes that reached, for the first time, as far as the Defense Ministry compound in the heart of Damascus.

While Israel said the attacks were to protect the Druze population and deter a military buildup near its border, analysts view them as part of a broader strategic recalibration.

FROM LOCAL SKIRMISH TO GEOPOLITICAL TINDERBOX

What began as a dispute between local armed groups quickly drew in the Syrian government forces, which wanted to restore control over Sweida, a province that was largely outside the government's grip even during the time of Bashar al-Assad's rule.

The Druze fighters, affiliated with various sheikhs and influential clerics, have long been managing local security, while the previous government maintained only a minimal presence in official institutions.

The new authorities sought to reestablish control over Sweida as part of a broader effort to assert authority over areas that had remained outside the control of both the previous and current governments.

The army launched a large-scale operation to regain control of Sweida, sparking intense street battles, particularly with fighters loyal to Sheikh Hikmat Salman al-Hijri, who refused to surrender weapons.

His resistance stemmed largely from deep mistrust, given the new authorities' past affiliations with jihadist groups before the ouster of Assad.

Field reports and witness testimonies collected by SOHR in Sweida painted a grim picture of the situation clouded by summary executions, attacks on hospitals, and siege-like conditions for Bedouin communities. Many families fled their homes amid fears of sectarian retaliation.

On Wednesday, under U.S.-Arab mediation, Damascus agreed to a ceasefire and withdrew its troops to deescalate the situation, particularly after Israel intensified its attacks and threatened more.

"We were faced with two options: open war with Israel, risking our Druze brethren and national stability, or allowing local leaders to come to their senses and prioritize the national interest. We chose the latter," Syrian interim leader Ahmad al-Sharaa said in a televised speech on Thursday.

On the same day, the authorities accused local armed elements of violating the truce and committing atrocities, and reiterated their commitment to restoring state authority and holding violators accountable, while warning against ongoing Israeli "aggression" and foreign attempts to exploit the situation.

ISRAEL'S EVOLVING STRATEGY

While Israel cited the protection of the Druze community to justify its strikes, regional observers point to deeper motives.

Maged Botros, a political science professor at Helwan University, said the strikes were part of a longer-term Israeli strategy to redraw influence zones in Syria.

"Israel aims to create a buffer zone in southern Syria by sowing division among factions and portraying the new Syrian leadership as hostile to minorities like the Druze," he said.

Political analyst Wael Alwan, speaking to SOHR, said Israel may be trying to pressure the Syrian government to prevent the establishment of a heavy military presence near its border.

"These strikes send a signal that Israel won't tolerate a return of Syrian or Iranian-aligned forces to the south," he said.

Others believe Israel is seizing the moment to derail any political normalization efforts with Damascus.

Amatzia Baram, a Middle East politics professor at the University of Haifa, told local media that recent violence disrupted tentative dialogue between Israel and Syria and complicated Israeli outreach to the new leadership in Damascus.

The Israeli strikes have sparked criticism across the region. The Arab League condemned them as a blatant violation of Syrian sovereignty, accusing Tel Aviv of exploiting the unrest for geopolitical gain.

Egypt warned the attacks would inflame regional tensions.

Meanwhile, Lebanon's Druze leader Walid Jumblatt called for unity among Syrians and urged Lebanese Druze to avoid internal polarization.

Ankara, which has traditionally balanced its position in Syrian affairs, warned against Israeli attempts to derail a post-conflict consensus in Syria.

Turkish analysts said Israel's strikes could challenge Ankara's efforts to lead a diplomatic response and stabilize the region.

Batu Coskun, a non-resident fellow at the UAE-based TRENDS Research and Advisory, noted that "neither Israel nor Türkiye wants direct confrontation," but both are heavily invested in Syria's future.

"Ankara is using all channels to prevent escalation, seeing Syria's fate as key to its national security," he said.

The United States has said that it did not support recent Israeli strikes on Syria and had made clear its displeasure, while calling on the Syrian government to lead the path forward.

"Regarding Israel's intervention and activity...the United States did not support recent Israeli strikes," U.S. State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said on Thursday.

"We are engaging diplomatically with Israel and Syria at the highest levels, both to address the present crisis and reach a lasting agreement between the two sovereign states," she said.

FRAGILE CEASEFIRE, UNCERTAIN PATH FORWARD

Although a ceasefire has technically been in place since Wednesday, the situation on the ground remains fragile. Israeli jets continue to operate in the area, and local militias still hold positions in Sweida.

The risk of renewed violence is high, particularly as Arab tribes from northern and eastern Syria have threatened retaliation over the hostilities against Bedouin communities in Sweida.

The conflict has highlighted the challenges facing Syria's new leadership, which is struggling to assert control across a fragmented landscape.

The Syrian interim authorities are now grappling to assert control over all of Syria at a time when mistrust and lack of confidence are preventing such a goal.

At the same time, Israel's backlash poses a major obstacle, which is undermining talks between Israel and Syria that have been reported recently as part of the plan to reach a peace agreement in the near future.

As Syria stands at a crossroads, regional and international actors are maneuvering to shape its future through diplomacy, deterrence, or force. For now, the people of Sweida remain trapped between foreign interests, fractured alliances, and the lingering scars of war.

"This latest crisis exposes the deep contradictions of post-Assad Syria," said Baram, the professor at the University of Haifa.

"Damascus wants unity, Israel wants influence, and the region is watching closely. What happens in Sweida will echo far beyond its borders," he noted.