By Paris Tsirigotis

The Piraeus Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI) has analyzed the economic impact of the war in the Middle East, six months after the conflict began.

Based on available data from the EU, European Central Bank, IMF, ILO, Eurostat and ELSTAT, the Chamber provides an economic review and estimates the costs for Greece and the EU.

Energy and trade disruption

As the Chamber pointed out, once again a prolonged geopolitical crisis has shown that its effects are not confined to the battlefield, but quickly spill over into energy markets, shipping, inflation, consumption and, ultimately, economic growth. For the EU and Greece, the six-month period can be viewed as a new energy and trade shock, perhaps smaller than the 2022 crisis but serious enough to overturn initial economic forecasts for 2026.

The energy bill

The first and most immediate impact was the increase in energy costs. A sharp decline in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz pushed up crude oil, fuel and natural gas prices. In July, international prices remained around 30% above pre-war levels, although they had fallen from the extreme levels seen in the first weeks.

For the EU, the central estimate of the additional energy bill after six months stands at around €85 billion. This represents money flowing out of the European economy to purchase essentially the same or smaller quantities of energy at higher prices.

Europe’s energy dependence has changed since 2022, but it has not disappeared. Greater reliance on LNG has reduced dependence on Russian pipeline gas, but has increased Europe’s exposure to global shipping routes and fluctuations in international prices.

Impact on economic growth

The second impact concerns economic growth. The EU has revised down its 2026 growth forecast to 1.1%, with the new energy shock seen as a key factor behind the slowdown. The IMF estimates that the war could shave around 0.5% off eurozone GDP over two years.

Based on these revisions, the estimated loss of turnover across the EU’s real economy during the six-month period is approaching €30 billion. The damage stems from weaker consumption, deferred investment, higher production costs and reduced competitiveness for European businesses.

Inflation remains a key threat

At the same time, the Chamber noted that inflation remains a major threat. The ECB forecasts that inflation will peak at around 3% in the second half of 2026, mainly due to the direct pass-through of higher oil prices into fuel, food and agricultural product prices.

The inflationary burden on the European economy is estimated at around €25 billion, through the loss of purchasing power and higher operating costs.

In addition, higher freight rates, war-risk insurance premiums, delays and the need to maintain higher inventories are estimated to add around €15 billion to supply-chain transport costs. Another €15 billion is attributed approximately to the fiscal cost. Energy support measures announced by member states by May amounted to €14.5 billion.

EU’s gross economic burden reaches €145 billion

Overall, the EU’s gross economic burden after six months is estimated at €145 billion. The figure does not represent a direct loss of GDP, as it includes additional expenditure, lost income and macroeconomic effects. It nevertheless provides a reliable indication of the overall cost of the six-month period, from the end of February through the end of August.

The cost for Greece

For Greece, the Chamber estimated the cost over the six-month period at around €3 billion.

Of this amount, approximately €1.5 billion was attributed to the additional energy bill, €600 million to lost turnover, €500 million to transport and supply costs, and €400 million to the fiscal burden.

The cost of inflationary pressures is estimated at close to €1 billion, but this is not added separately to the total because part of the impact has already been incorporated into energy and business costs.

The Greek economy continued to grow, with GDP increasing by 2% in the first half of 2026, while inflation eased from 3.9% in June to 2.7% in July. However, high prices continued to weigh on households’ real disposable income and increased liquidity pressures on small and medium-sized businesses.

Shipping represents a special case for Greece. On the one hand, the country’s coastal shipping sector is being hit by higher marine fuel prices. On the other hand, Greek-owned ocean-going shipping is benefiting from higher freight rates, despite increased risks, insurance premiums, fuel costs and longer voyages.

Shipping revenues, however, do not offset the burden on the industry, trade, transport, tourism, small and medium-sized businesses and households.