By Letta Kalamara

lkalamara@naftemporiki.gr

The second round of reviews of Greece’s sovereign credit rating began a few days ago, with DBRS upgrading its outlook for the Greek economy. Two rating agencies, Moody’s and Scope Ratings, will take their turn on September 18.

Amid geopolitical and military tensions, rising inflationary pressures and higher interest rates, the Greek economy continues to show resilience, with GDP expanding by 1.9% in the second quarter of the year. From October, Greece is set to clear another €6 billion in early debt repayments by the end of the year, bringing the total 2026 early repayments to €12.8 billion.

In its March assessment, Moody’s kept Greece’s sovereign rating at Baa3, the lowest investment-grade rating. In a recent analysis, the agency also cut its forecasts for Greek economic growth to 1.7% this year and in 2027, from a previous forecast of 2.1%. It added that strong absorption of European funds and private investment are expected to support growth in the coming years, partly offsetting challenges such as adverse demographic trends.

Scope Ratings rated Greece at BBB with a positive outlook, effectively one notch above investment grade. Amid geopolitical tensions and the energy crisis, the agency expects the Greek economy to grow by 2% this year. It also forecasts the country to record the largest reduction in its debt ratio in 2026, to 136% of GDP, with the ratio falling as low as 107% of GDP by 2031.

The trajectory of Greece’s public debt appears to be playing a decisive role in further rating upgrades. As part of its early repayment programme, Greece will repay a further €6 billion of debt from next month through the end of the year, out of a total €12.84 billion planned for 2026.

The amount comprises:

€2.5 billion in installments on loans from the second bailout programme, by the end of October

€2.2 billion bond maturing in December 2027, by mid-December

€1.2 billion in Treasury bills, reducing the total amount outstanding to €7 billion at the end of the year from €8 billion at the end of 2025

It is recalled that in June, Greece made early repayments of €6.94 billion covering installments on loans from the first bailout programme.

The government's economic team aims for Greece to no longer hold the highest debt ratio in Europe by the end of the year, with Italy expected to take over that position.

The government plans to continue making early debt repayments in the coming years, with the aim of bringing the debt ratio below 120% of GDP by 2029 and below 110% by 2031. Greece’s sovereign rating is also expected to be upgraded to ‘A’ by 2030.