Hong Kong's retail sales value rose 15.7 percent in February from a year earlier, following a 14.9 percent increase in January. Yet the city's retail businesses remain vulnerable to external shocks, a government spokesman warned.

The total retail sales value in February stood at HK$33.8 billion, an increase of 15.7 percent year-on-year, the government said on its website on Thursday. That compares to a 14.9 percent gain in January.

After removing the inflationary effect, retail sales by volume increased 10.1 percent in February from a year earlier, following a 9.1 percent growth the previous month. The January figures were distorted to a certain extent by the Lunar New Year holidays' timing. The Chinese Festival fell in January this year but in February last year.

Taking January and February together to neutralize the holiday effects, total retail sales grew 15.2 percent in value and 9.5 percent in volume compared with the same period in 2011.

For the first two months as a whole, "retail sales grew appreciably over a year earlier. Yet, the growth rate moderated somewhat from that in the final quarter of last year," a government spokesman said.

For the city's retail businesses, this year didn't quite start off on a good footing, with weaker-than-expected holiday shopping. The 14.9 percent retail sales growth in January marked a significant deceleration from December, when sales jumped 23.5 percent year-on-year.

And shoppers have begun to cut back on big-ticket items against an uncertain macroeconomic backdrop.

Sales of jewelry, watches and valuable gifts by volume rose only 5.5 percent during the first two months from a year earlier.

"Growth in early 2012 will be challenging for all businesses, not just retailers, as global financial market volatility and sluggish global trade momentum persist," HSBC Greater China economist Donna Kwok said.

Kwok expects the retail sales slowdown to "intensify in the coming months, until the third quarter when sales should start to pick up on the back of stabilizing global growth".

The HSBC economist forecast an annual retail sales growth of around 15-16 percent, which is considered "healthy".

Daniel Chan, chief economist at BWC Capital Markets, agreed that the city's retail sales growth will continue to moderate, but said he doesn't see a sharp slowdown ahead, citing the still robust inbound tourism.

The Hong Kong Tourism Board said that 3.37 million people visited the city in February, 15.3 percent more than the same month last year.

"The improved income conditions and vibrant inbound tourism should still be supportive to the retail business in the near term," noted the government spokesman.

"However, we need to keep a close watch over the headwinds in the external environment, and their potential negative spillovers to the local economy and consumer sentiment," he added.