By Huang Xiaofang, Lin Huocan
On August 9, the National Development and Reform Commission announced its decision to raise the price of gasoline and diesel fuel by RMB 390 Yuan/ton and RMB 370 Yuan/ton respectively from 00:00 of August 10; as a result, the (national average) price of the #90 gasoline and #0 diesel fuel will be increased by RMB0.29 Yuan/liter and RMB 0.32 Yuan/liter respectively.
This is the first price rise after three consecutive falls in the price of refined oil products in China this year. When interviewed, experts told the reporter that this change of price was a normal adjustment by the government pursuant to the pricing mechanism of refined oil products and its influence on the operation of the macro economy would be insignificant.
"The current adjustment of the price of refined oil products in China has very little influence on the operation of the national economy", said Lin Boqiang, director of the Energy Economy Research Center of Xiamen University. Experts believe that the price adjustment accords perfectly with China's pricing mechanism of refined oil products; society has somehow anticipated the adjustment earlier, and the extent of the adjustment is not very significant.
In terms of energy structure, petroleum consumption accounts for only 20 percent of China's energy consumption, greatly lower than the 70 percent of coal. Therefore, in spite of the influence it might have on such industries as transport, logistics, and express delivery, the price adjustment may also spur such industries to optimize structure and implement more refined management. Therefore, the influence of the oil price adjustment on the operation of the macro economy can basically be ignored.
Zhou Dadi, a research of the Energy Research Institute of National Development and Reform Commission, points out that in the next half of this year, the rising momentum in international oil price is still very strong; however, economic recovery in developing countries is rather slow, therefore, the possibility of significant rise in international oil price is not very great, international oil price will remain relatively stable, and big fluctuation of oil price in China is not very likely.
Earlier, the World Economic Outlook published by IMF points out that, in light of the sluggishness of the world economy in this year, international oil price is expected to fall in this year and next year, and the trend of the sluggishness will lower the price of other major commodities.
Lin Boqiang points out that, taking all factors into account, fluctuation of international oil price in the next half of the year will becomes gentler, and the current global economic slump and the slowing down of the growth of China's macro economy present an excellent opportunity for China to promote reform of the pricing mechanism of refined oil products. Lin Boqiang suggests that China shouldn't miss the opportunity and should make active effort to steadily promote the reforming of the pricing mechanism of refined oil products and to further improve the current price forming mechanism of refined oil products so that to make it more market-oriented.
