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Egyptian tanks in Sinai both risk and benefit for Israel
Last Updated(Beijing Time):2012-08-23 09:36

Egypt deployed some tanks in the Sinai Peninsula bordering Israel in the aftermath of a deadly militant attack, while the two countries are trying to define their ties in the post-Mubarak era.

The deployment of the tanks is part of Egypt's recent crackdown on militants after they attacked on a border post close to Israel and Gaza on Aug. 5 and killed 16 soldiers.

However, according to the 1979 Camp David peace agreement between the countries, Sinai is supposed to be a demilitarized zone, and Israeli officials are concerned about Egypt's unwillingness to coordinate such military moves with them.

On Wednesday, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, at a meeting with ambassadors in Jerusalem, warned that Israel might find itself on a slippery slope when it come to Cairo's willingness to uphold the stipulations of the peace agreement.

On Monday, Israeli media reported that the government sent Cairo a message to that effect via the White House, hoping the routing via the Americans would add diplomatic clout to the request.

"It's a trade-off in the short-term, in which the terrorists in

Sinai pose a common threat to both Israel and Egypt," Prof. Benny Miller, of the University of Haifa, told Xinhua on Wednesday.

"Under these conditions, Israel has an interest that Egypt deploys forces into Sinai in order to suppress these elements," Miller said, referring to the jihadist groups which have taken advantage of the vast mountainous desert.

The jihadist groups' numbers have significantly increased since former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak was toppled in February 2011.

The groups are believed to be behind not only the attack on Egyptian soldiers but also in several deadly cross-border attacks on Israeli civilians over the last year.

According to analysts, a continued Egyptian crackdown would be in Israel's best interest since the no-man's land situation that exists in Sinai today is a security challenge to both sides.

It has even been suggested that this might be an area where Israel and the new Egyptian government under President Mohamed Morsi, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, could cooperate despite the groups' goal of Israel's destruction.

Miller said that another long-term threat which Israel needs to consider is that if Egypt becomes economically stronger and remains under Muslim Brotherhood rule, it might pose a security threat to Israel.

Through the Mubarak era, Israel and Egypt maintained close security cooperation, due to shared view on a number of regional issues. But these ties are now being re-evaluated with the rise of

the Muslim Brotherhood, which Mubarak banned from taking part in politics.

Nevertheless, Miller listed two factors that explain why Egypt' s current military operations in Sinai will not be a threat to Israel in the short term.

"One is the economic weakness of Egypt. Egypt is so weak economically now that you can't imagine them initiating a war or planning a war against Israel," Miller said.

After Mubarak's ouster, the economy almost came to a standstill, and tourism, which used to be a major source of revenues has not returned to its previous level yet.

Second is Egypt's dependence on U.S. aid and supply. "Because all of the Egyptian military is equipped by U.S. stuff, they would threaten their relations with the U.S. by initiating a war or any military action against Israel," he said.

According to Dr. Mark Heller, of Tel Aviv University, not only the Egyptian military but the entire country is "very much dependent on U.S. goodwill, almost regardless of who is in power."

Egypt is an importer of basic foodstuffs. Heller said it is the largest importer of wheat in the world and the second largest importer of corn, adding that much of the imports come from the United States and its strong allies.

"We are a far cry from the situation in the 1950s and 1960s when Egypt thumbed its nose at the United States because it had the backing of another superpower," Heller said.

Source:Xinhua 
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