A farmer harvests rice in Thailand. The Thai Rice Exporters Association said increasing rice exports from Myanmar will take market share from Thailand. Dario Pignatelli / Bloomberg

Rice exports from Myanmar may more than double to 1.5 million tons this year, an industry group forecast, highlighting the country's potential to boost overseas trade.

As the government starts to purchase production at above-market prices to encourage greater planting, shipments may increase to as much as 2 million tons next year and reach 3 million tons by 2015, according to the Myanmar Rice Industry Association. Sales totaled 700,000 tons last year.

An advance in exports may bolster global stockpiles, while boosting competition with Thailand, Vietnam and India. The projected gain may make Myanmar the world's sixth-largest shipper this year, with volumes at the highest level since the 1960s, when the country was the world's largest exporter, according to data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

"Myanmar coming into the market will take away some markets from Thailand, worsening Thai rice exports," said Vichai Sriprasert, honorary president of Thai Rice Exporters Association. "In the long run, Myanmar has the potential to become the top exporter because of its fertile land and water."

The price of 100 percent grade-B rice from Thailand, a benchmark variety from the largest exporter, plunged 18 percent from a three-year high in November to $546 a ton on Jan 18.

Rough rice traded on the Chicago Board of Trade, which was at $14.49 for each 100 pounds (45 kilograms) at 5:33 pm in Singapore, has lost 2.5 percent this year. Prices have declined as India resumed exports of non-basmati rice after a four-year ban.

Myanmar has the potential to become the Asia's "next economic frontier" if it takes advantage of its natural resources, young labor force and proximity to China and India, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said last week. The country, which shares borders with the world's two most populous nations, may grow 5.5 percent in 2011 and 2012, the IMF said.

The country is the "most promising" Asian market as the government reforms the political system in a nation that has ample natural resources, investor Jim Rogers said in November.

While local consumption accounts for 11.5 million to 12 million tons each year, total milled-rice output may increase 11 percent to 13.5 million tons in the year that started in October, and climb to 15.5 million tons over the next three years, the association said in an e-mail. The target markets for white-rice sales are Africa, Indonesia and the Philippines, it said.

The increase in planting was driven by a government policy of buying rough rice at about 10 percent above the market rate, according to the association. The program started in about the middle of January, it said.