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Britain's jobless rate to rise to 9.3 pct next year
Last Updated(Beijing Time):2012-04-16 19:21

Britain's jobless rate is forecast to rise to 9.3 percent in the middle of next year, an independent forecasting group said on Monday.

A spring forecast report issued by the Ernst & Young Item Club expected the unemployment rate, currently at 8.4 percent, to approach 9.3 percent by the middle of next year, with the number of jobless people rising to almost 3 million before beginning to fall back.

Households remain under intense pressure in labor and commodity markets and private-sector recruitment is barely able to offset the redundancies in the sector, the Item Club said.

At the same time, the Club forecast that Britain's Consumer Price Index (CPI), a major gauge for inflation, will reach 2.8 percent this year and drop to 2.1 percent next year.

The figures indicate a slowdown in Britain's inflation.

The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONE) showed that Britain's CPI fell to 3.4 percent in February from 3.6 percent in the previous month. This is the lowest annual inflation level Britain has seen since November 2010.

However, the average earnings growth has remained well below inflation, which is being held up by rising petrol prices.

"The latest industrial surveys show that the rise in energy and raw materials costs has been absorbed by margins. But this is now likely to feed through to consumer prices, reinforcing the pressure on household finances and further delaying prospects of a consumer recovery," the Item Club said.

Meanwhile, activity in the housing market is falling back now that the stamp duty holiday for first-time buyers has ended, said the Item Club.

Moreover, the Bank of England's latest Credit Conditions Survey is signaling a major tightening of credit standards, particularly for mortgage borrowers.

Profit margins on mortgage lending have already widened and are projected to increase further over the next three months, said the Item Club.

This reflects the tightening of credit in the eurozone as banks reduce their loan books in order to meet the more stringent regulatory capital requirements imposed last December.

Source:Xinhua 
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