The United States' market recovery seems to have stalled. Recent weaker than expected unemployment figures took the momentum out of the market. One of the characteristics of a bull market is that any news, good or bad, seems to push the market higher. This is not happening with the Dow index. The Nasdaq has reached the upside target calculated from the breakout from the symmetrical triangle pattern. Once achieved the Nasdaq has also stalled. The S&P 500, a broader measure of the US market has also lost momentum.

The key question revolves around the ability of the US market to continue this slow recovery. The Dow index chart suggests the recovery is sustainable. Another important market indicator suggests the recovery is very sustainable.

We start with the Dow index. The Dow index developed a head-and-shoulders pattern between April 2011 and July 2011. The neckline for this pattern is extended into the future. This has become a new upward trend line. The line is currently defining the limits of the Dow index rise. For many months this line acted as a resistance level and limited the rally rise. In March there was a short-term breakout above the upward trend line but this was not successful.

The Dow index is oscillating around the value of this upward trend line. The important conclusion is that the Dow is not showing developing bearish pressure. There are no end-of-upward trend patterns developing. The upward momentum is not strong but it is persistent.

An essential feature of the US economy is the size of consumer credit. The 2008 recession showed American consumers shift from using credit cards to finance their consumption to using cash. US household savings rates are very low and, with limited cash consumption, declined dramatically. Cash came out of the stock market. Cash came out of the housing market. Cash was used to pay off credit cards and debt. It wasn't just a national economy that showed these reactions. This action was taken by millions of individuals with the result that consumption and demand plummeted. When consumers stop spending, the economy stalls.

There are many official methods for tracking the growth of the retail credit markets. We prefer to use an unofficial method that tracks the future expectations of investors in the personal credit markets. Reports about what has happened in the past are not as useful as methods for understanding what people expect to happen in the future.

The US market is dominated by three large credit card providers. They are Visa, MasterCard and American Express. Their business is providing a line of revolving credit to their customers. The more confident their customers feel, the more they will spend on their credit cards. Outstanding credit card debt - the amount people are spending on their cards - has been growing steadily. It shows American consumers are more prepared to buy on credit than at any time in the past four years.

The price chart of Visa shows that investors expect that this use of credit cards will continue to grow. Starting in September 2011 the Visa stock price has lifted from around $75 to $125. This is a 66 percent increase. That's a useful investment and trading opportunity.

More importantly the trend rise has been very steady. This is a smooth rising trend with a low level of volatility. There are no large price range days that deliver false exit signals in the rising trend. The smoothness of the upward trend shows strong investor confidence in the future expansion of personal credit use in the US. It is this increase in credit that signals an increase in the confidence of the US market.

The chart of the Visa stock price points the way to the future intentions of the US consumer and they are bullish. This suggests that the Dow will recover momentum because this increase in personal credit demand will drive up consumption. For investors, the dips in the Dow trend are a long-term buying opportunity.

The author is a well-known international financial technical analysis expert.