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Indian cement makers cheered by monsoon delay
Last Updated(Beijing Time):2012-08-01 14:36

Lack of rains this monsoon have hit the Indian farmers badly and the repeat of the drought of 2009, the worst the country saw in the last four decades, cannot be ruled out, but one sector which is cheering is cement.

The delay of rains continued construction all over India in June and the last month and as a result cement consumption went up.

Though hard data is not available, real estate analysts say the demand growth is more than around 10 percent.

Teena Virmani, vice-president of Kotak Securities, says, " monsoon delay has ensured extension of construction activities, which is proving fruitful for cement makers."

The Competition Commission of India (CCI) issued an order directing the Cement Manufacturers' Association not collect data of production and dispatch and circulate it among its members.

But, according to unofficial market sources the all-India average price of a 50-kg cement bag is above 300 rupees (5.45 U.S. dollars). In June it had dipped a little but in July it increased more.

A research analyst of a broking firm said, "surge in prices is an indication that demand for cement continues to be robust. This also reflects the share price movements of cement majors."

During a normal monsoon, in other years, by mid-June, when it starts pouring, cement consumption starts decreasing and during the next quarter, when it rains heavily all over India, the sales are meagre. In June 2011, the growth in the cement industry was only 1.6 percent year-on-year.

A north-India based cement company chairman, on conditions of anonymity said, "demand continues to be in line with the earlier months of this financial year. Since prices are a function of demand, they tend to rise on account of higher consumption."

This year, in April, the cement sector recorded a growth in sales of 6.3 per cent, which climbed steeply to close to 13 per cent in May.

He did not want to comment on CCI's order on controlling production, but said several plants all over India were carrying out their annual maintenance and repairing tasks, which might have reduced supply. Cement units usually during this part of the year shut their plants as the demand is less because during of a normal monsoon construction activities slow down.

Though in the short term a delayed monsoon is good news for cement manufacturers but in the long term it might hit the industry too, say analysts.

An industry analyst said, "the growth in this sector is generally 1.1x-1.3x of the gross domestic product growth rate. If rains remain deficient, demand for cement from rural and semi- urban regions too would be hit. Construction activities cannot take place without water, and if water remains deficient, construction activities will slow down, which will, in turn, hit consumption."

Source:Xinhua 
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