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Local govts return to investment-driven growth model
Last Updated: 2014-04-22 07:23 | China Daily
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Once again, China's local governments are reportedly tilting toward investment-driven programs to avert an economic slowdown.

Domestic media outlets have reported that governments in five provincial-level regions - Guangdong, Hainan, Tianjin , Jiangxi and Guizhou - have launched stimulus packages with a combined value of 7.13 trillion yuan ($1.15 trillion).

But a closer look at these packages indicates that the figures aren't necessarily as impressive as they seem.

Local governments routinely announce "key investment project catalogs", often featuring projects that will take years to complete.

For example, in Guangdong, 285 key investment projects with a total value of 3.67 trillion yuan have been announced. But only 450 billion yuan is expected to be spent this year. Still, these plans reflect local governments' eagerness to prop up the economy through big-ticket projects.

In Guangdong, the promised 450 billion yuan investment for this year exceeds last year's 420 billion yuan plan. Highways, liquefied natural gas facilities and petroche mical factories are categorized as "infrastructure" and account for more than half of the plan.

"Guangdong's fixed-asset investment to GDP ratio had been on the low end among provinces. The ratio began to climb starting from this year," said Chen Hongyu, an economics professor with the Guangdong provincial Party School. "And a majority of the investment poured into backward western and northern Guangdong."

Although many projects listed in the various packages were in the works well before the nation's economy began to slow, analysts said provincial leaders ordered work brought forward.

In southeast Fujian province, Governor Su Shulin told a recent economic work conference that local officials should spare no effort to accelerate approved projects and spur the creation of new projects. Similar calls were heard in Liaoning, Qinghai and Shaanxi provinces.

Nationwide, fixed-asset investment growth in the first three months slid to 17.6 percent from 19.3 percent for the whole of 2013. The 8.8 percent increase in industrial production in March also trailed previous estimates.

However, the slowdown varied from region to region. Northeast Heilongjiang province recorded the slowest industrial output growth rate in the first two months, coming it at just 1 percent. Hebei 's growth rate was just 3 percent.

But both Anhui and Chongqing recorded a 12.9 percent year-on-year growth rate for industrial output, the highest among all regions.

Analysts said provinces that are less reliant on heavy industry are also less exposed to the slowdown, which highlights the urgency of changing the growth model. The hardest-hit regions all have economies that are dependent on heavy industries or natural resource projects.

For example, coal-rich Shaanxi province recorded 11.2 percent industrial output growth in the first two months, compared with 13.2 percent the same period of last year and 17.3 percent in 2012.

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