New apartments are under construction in Yichang, Hubei province. China is witnessing the phenomenon of 'ghost cities'amid excess investment in property development in recent years. Experts say a careful approach is required to create environmental sustainability. [Photo/IC]

Getting bigger, richer doesn't solve metro center woes

An interesting theory is making the rounds. It claims to identify turning points in population scale and density where the growth of Chinese cities' sustainability will slow down or stall. The experts behind the theory are urging improvement in China's urban management and a change in the way cities are laid out with no goal beyond generating revenue.

It's difficult to improve a Chinese city's sustainability by boosting per capita GDP alone, particularly once the population exceeds 4.5 million or population density reaches 8,000 people per square kilometer, according to a recent study from the Urban China Initiative, a joint initiative of a panel of institutions, including consultancy McKinsey & Co Inc.

The Urban Sustainability Index displays positive correlations between environmental sustainability and per capita GDP, population size and density. But that's only when a city has fewer than 4.5 million residents or density of less than 8,000 people per sq km.

"Those 'turning points' in China are unique and don't hold in cities across the world," said Li Shantong, senior research fellow at the Development Research Center of the State Council.

Consider Tokyo, whose density is about 14,440 people per sq km, about the same as in Shanghai. Tokyo's per capita GDP was $72,000 in 2011, five times the level in Shanghai.

But Tokyo wins out in all aspects over Shanghai, such as livability, traffic management and social security.

"These facts suggest that, for further growth of sustainability, our cities must accelerate steps to narrow the gap between them and other global cities regarding urban management capacity," Li said.

"China, on the one hand, has witnessed the absurd phenomenon of 'ghost cities' and excess investment in property development. On the other hand, it has large, densely packed cities that have scant traffic management and medical resources," said Li Xun, vice-president of the China Academy of Urban Planning and Design.

"It requires a careful approach to improve and balance (this situation) for our cities' sustainability," he added.

Urban admini strators have been too obsessed with economic results, resulting in cities whose layout "drags down the pace of sustainable development", said Cao Jianhai, a professor at the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a top government think tank.

"In terms of city development, Chinese municipal governments have always concentrated on maximizing interests and collecting tax revenue over social welfare and the environment," said Cao.

China's local fiscal revenue in 2013 reached 6.8 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion), with land transfer fees accounting for almost 60 percent.

With that much money at stake, local governments tend to be reluctant to allocate land for public use, such as gree n space.

"If this short-sighted behavior doesn't cease, the constraints on cities' sustainability will never be broken," Cao said.

Another factor is foreign direct investment. That has also found to be positively correlated with the level of

sustainability, until it reaches $3 billion.

At least 11 cities, including Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen, home to 21 percent of China's urban population, have crossed all three turning points, the study found. For most of the 11 cities, additional improvements in sustainability as a result of a growing population or higher GDP will be very limited.

Based on sample analyses, the research suggested Chinese cities should recognize the need to transform their growth models when the critical turning points occur.

The raw data for the USI were taken from the latest available figures in the years from 2005 to 2011, and it covers various aspects of society, the environment, the economy and resources in 185 cities that were recognized as urbanized areas by the government.

Amid the list of names, Zhuhai in Guangdong province ranked top overall, and it's considered to be a model of sustainable development. Unlike most cities in China, Zhuhai established a strict protocol to avoid introducing even profitable enterprises or industries that might jeopardize the city's environment, said Qi Jia, director of the city's Development and Reform Bureau.

"The success in Zhuhai has reminded our cities to end the process of 'polluting first, cleaning up later' and turn to the proper track of sustainable development," said Cao.

"Prevention is always cheaper than cure," said Jonathan Woetzel, director of McKinsey's Greater China office.

Following the Third Plenary Session of the Communist Party of China's 18th Central Committee, the national government stressed that a national effort was underway to improve the quality and level of urbanization.

That involves a range of measures, including making better use of land, managing population concentration and prioritizing environmental security.

The aim of the USI is to understand how China's sustainability drive is evolving and to provide references to help policymakers increase the quality of their thinking and actions. The USI also found that most Chinese cities are gradually improving their level of sustainability, especially in the social and environmental aspects.

The top 10 cities, including Beijing and Dalian, on the list of sustainability are mostly located in coastal or eastern regions, as their geographic locations are favorable for trade, the USI found.