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China;s economy braced for GDP slowdown
Last Updated: 2014-05-23 01:41 | Global Times
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Data released last week once again offered a cloudy outlook on China's economy. Key economic indicators, including industrial output, retail sales as well as property development and sales, all posted slower year-on-year growth in April, falling short of market expectations.

Economic data and policy decisions have been closely tracked and analyzed all year by global investors and economic observers. With scrutiny mounting, slight pickups or falls in any data point may be read as either a sign of recovery or an omen of coming catastrophe. Similarly, the smallest whiff of a change in policy direction may be read as the beginning of a massive stimulus program.

But those looking for either a return to rapid growth or an economic collapse will ultimately be disappointed. China's economy has entered into a new phase of its development, one marked by a slower growth pace. This "new normal" calls for a new way of thinking about the country's growth model.

For the country at large, slower growth does not necessarily mean that the fundamentals underpinning the economy have weakened. What we are seeing now is rather the natural result of a restructuring campaign helmed by the country's top leadership.

After more than three decades of explosive economic growth, China has hit a crossroad: one path leads toward a continuation of rapid GDP expansion fueled by high levels of investment and exports, the other leads toward sustainable growth and a more balanced overall economy. Chinese policymakers chose the latter path.

It is no longer viable - or even desirable - for China's economy to return to the days of double-digit growth. The country's economic engine is in the midst of an overhaul, and some short-term readjustment pains are inevitable as reforms ease the lingering side effects of previous stimulus measures.

Planners have so far done an admirable job of preventing the economy from slowing too dramatically. Although the economy grew at a 7.4 percent rate in the first quarter, the slowest growth pace for the country since the third quarter of 2012, there are still many countries around the world that would love to boast such a large increase.

Compared with the Japanese economy, which suddenly decelerated from a 9.7 percent average annual growth pace from 1955 to 1973 to around 4 percent from 1974 to 1980, China has been successful in achieving a smooth transition and averting disaster with its own government-engineered slowdown.

At the same time, Chinese authorities have stuck to their commitment of not intervening on the slowing economy with new stimulus measures. Indeed, members of the country's top leadership have repeatedly said they will tolerate the current slowdown and draw growth momentum from reforms. This tough stance comes even as an expanding list of risk factors - such as high levels of local government debt, increasing activity in the shadow banking sector, fallout from environmental degradation and the softening of China's housing market - has many concerned about overall conditions in the country's economy.

PresidentXi Jinpingsaid on May 10 that China should adapt to the new pace of economic growth and keep "cool-minded" amid the slowdown. Xi also said China is still in a significant period of strategic opportunity. Xi's comment underscores policymakers' confidence in the economy.

This confidence comes, no doubt, from the fact that China has managed to keep employment stable despite the cooling economy. Data released Wednesday showed China created 4.7 million new jobs in cities in the first four months of the year, up 30,000 jobs from the same period last year.

As China is restructuring its economy away from an over-reliance on investment and export manufacturing, the service sector is outpacing the industrial sector and becoming a major contributor to stability in the job market.

The country's service sector outperformed the industrial sector for the first time in 2013, accounting for 46.1 percent of the country's GDP. And in the first quarter, as China's industrial sector grew by 7.3 percent from a year earlier, the service sector expanded by 7.8 percent year-on-year, accounting for 49 percent of GDP, 4.1 percentage points higher than the industrial sector.

While it is still too early to say that China's economy has reached a point where the service sector is the main engine of growth, clearly this shift is gaining steam. This means that opportunities in the service sector are multiplying rapidly. Now is not the time to talk down China's economic growth potential, but to capitalize on the country's transition toward a more sustainable, balanced growth model.

The author is a reporter with the Global Times.

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