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Israeli gov't coalition parties to benefit in early elections
Last Updated(Beijing Time):2012-05-01 01:31

With signs indicating that Israelis will be heading to the polls in 2012, rather than in 2013 when the current mandate ends, the country's political parties are prepping for early elections.

While Israeli Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu, who heads the rightist Likud party, has made no formal declaration calling for new elections, local media reports said that he has asked his advisors to look into the possibility of holding elections in mid August or early September.

Tamir Sheafer, a professor at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, told Xinhua on Monday that the center and right-wing parties that make up Netanyahu's coalition government are in a better position than the opposition parties to the left.

"Right now, the right-wing is having a majority, but simply because in the polls they are stronger," Sheafer said.

Prof. Peter Medding at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem added that while the right is in a stronger position now, much can happen before the elections and what the final result would be is anyone's guess.

Israeli Foreign Minister Avidgor Lieberman, who heads the Yisrael Beiteinu party, said the elections should be held as soon as possible, because the current situation could paralyze the government.

The recently-elected leader of the opposition Labor party, Shelly Yachimovich, has called for a new law to be passed to disband the Knesset (parliament), urging to hold the elections within three months of its passage.

Medding pointed out that there are two ways to decide on a date. "Basically the Knesset parliament can pass a law determining that the elections will be on such and such a date or the parties can agree to hold the elections on such and such a date; both of them are more or less in parallel," Medding said.

"It's a matter of negotiations, and supposedly Netanyahu wants them as early as possible, the earliest possible (date) here is months away because of certain registration and population registry requirements," he added.

Due to the bureaucratic requirements, the earliest possible date would be something in line with what Yachimovich suggested, adding the time it would take for the law to pass -- meaning sometime in August, he said.

However, August is the main summer vacation month and it could be argued that holding elections while most of the nation is on vacation is impractical. This would put off elections to either September -- prior to the Jewish high holidays in October -- or afterwards in November.

Clearly any newcomer wants more time to get organized, to become known, to become popular and certainly to get organized and get supporters lined up and so on. Any incumbent party that thinks it is doing well obviously wants to have them earlier, Medding said.

One party that would benefit for later elections is the Future party headed by Yair Lapid, one of Israel's best known journalists and the son of Tommy Lapid, who chaired the secular Shinui party in the 2003 elections.

Lapid has only recently registered his party, but according to a poll the Ynet news site published on Monday, his party would get 11 mandates, to Likud party's 30 spots.

Sheafer said the survey indicated that Likud would strengthen its position and that Netanyahu would most possibly remain as the prime minster.

However, the professor cautioned that "One thing that you can say about Israeli politics is that it's rather unpredictable, and if something big happens in the next few months things may change, but it seems now Netanyahu is going to be the next prime minister. "

Sheafer argued that while the parties on the left might be weaker in the polls at the moment, they are more settled than the right-wing parties.

While all the left-wing parties have in the last couple of month elected new leaders, the question is open on who will lead two of the main coalition parties.

Lieberman, for example, is under investigation for possible fraud and money laundering, and should he be charged, support for Yisrael Beiteinu could be affected.

The ultra-orthodox Shas party is facing a possible split if its former leader Arye Deri returns to politics after a jail term on bribery charges.

If Deri, who is still popular with many Shas voters, is allowed to return to the party, it would receive 11 Knesset seats, according to the Ynet poll. If he were to form his own party, he would get three votes and Shas, seven.

One politician that is most likely to lose out in the new elections is Defense Minister Ehud Barak. Barak started this mandate period as the head of the Labor party, but in January, 2011 he formed the Independence faction, after which Labor decided to quit the government.

While the new party allowed him to remain in the government, the lack of a clear voter base is likely to cost him when new elections are held.

"The only thing that Barak's party has is Ehud Barak, and there are still some people that would follow him," Sheafer said.

"The question will be if enough of these people would grant him a seat in the parliament, and right now, according to the polls, he isn't making it -- but it may change," he added.

Source:Xinhua 
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