The Hong Kong government warned of an uncertain outlook for the city's exports after shipments were basically flat in the first two months of this year compared with a year ago.

For the first two months, the total exports value rose by a marginal 1.5 percent from the same period last year, figures released by the Census and Statistics Department on Tuesday show. The re-exports value increased 2 percent, while the domestic exports value tumbled 24.8 percent. Imports value grew 3.8 percent in the first two months, leaving a HK$54.7 billion trade deficit.

A total of HK$259.8 billion worth of goods were shipped in February, up 14 percent from a year ago, compared to a dip of 8.6 percent in January, the biggest drop since 2009. The figures were distorted by an earlier-than-usual weeklong Lunar New Year holiday, during which most businesses were shut. The festival fell in January this year and in February last year.

Experts are hesitant to interpret the February growth as a sign that things are finally taking a turn for the better.

Taking January and February together to reduce the distortion caused by the Chinese festival's timing, "export growth was still rather weak, decelerating notably from that in the fourth quarter of last year, reflecting the strong headwinds in the external environment," said a government spokesman.

Shipments to Asia gained 17.5 percent in February, following a drop of 11.8 percent the previous month. Exports to the mainland, the city's largest export market, jumped 17.3 percent, compared with a year-on-year decrease of 12.6 percent in January. Shipments to the US gained 8.3 percent.

Kevin Lai, an analyst at Daiwa Capital Markets, reckoned that he doesn't see things improving.

The February rebound "was largely due to the difference in timing of the Lunar New Year, and demand will remain weak in the coming months," Lai noted. He added that the export growth pace could slow further in March and April from the first two months.

Europe's debt crisis will continue to be a drag on exports, while intra-regional demand may weaken further in tandem with a widespread slowdown in the region, according to the Daiwa analyst.

"While the US economy has fared better-than-expected and the eurozone sovereign debt crisis has stabilized somewhat lately, the still-weak fundamentals of these advanced economies would continue to weigh on their import demand," said the government spokesman.

"Hong Kong's export remains uncertain in the near term," he cautioned.

Hang Seng Bank economists in a report issued earlier this month warned that Hong Kong's economy may very well contract in the first quarter of this year amid faltering exports and softening domestic demand.

Likewise, Daiwa's Lai predicted that the city's economy will shrink 1 percent in the first quarter as tepid global economic growth hurt exports.