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News Analysis: Italy markets stable in wake of Fitch report; investors turn toward 2019 budget process
Last Updated: 2018-09-04 09:59 | Xinhua
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Italy's investment markets greeted the highly-anticipated report from ratings agency Fitch with a yawn on Monday.

Throughout August, analysts pointed to the Aug. 31 release of the Fitch report on the outlook for the Italian economy as a market-moving event. Fitch released its report Friday, after the close of the markets, maintaining the BBB credit rating for Italy but lowering its long-term rating for the country.

On Monday, the first trading day after the report, markets hardly reacted: trading for the benchmark ten-year Italian government bond closed at 3.18 percent on secondary markets, 0.01 percentage points lower than its close Friday. The blue-chip index on the Italian Stock Exchange in Milan gained 0.62 percent, more or less evenly split between winners and losers.

"The actual rating wasn't lowered, and anyone who follows Italy closely will know that a lowered outlook for the future should be taken with a grain of salt because so much of the political situation can change so quickly," Alessandro Polli, an economic statistics researcher with Rome's La Sapienza University, told Xinhua.

Fitch cited the political situation in Italy as the main factor behind the lowered long-term outlook: the government of Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, installed little more than three months ago.

Since taking power, the Conte government has announced plans for a flat tax on business, increased spending in an array of areas, and what many economists say is a lack of discipline on long-term economic strategies.

Fitch took those factors into consideration: "Fiscal and other policy risks are compounded by the relatively high degree of political uncertainty," the report said.

Even though the markets were stable, the spread -- the difference between the yield on Italian and German government bonds -- rose as high as 290 points during Monday's session before settling at 282 points, higher than on Friday.

The higher bond yields are the more a government must pay to find buyers for its debt. A 282-point spread means Italy must pay 2.82 percent more than the German government to borrow money. If the spread remains that wide, it means Italy's already debt-ridden economy will have to pay billions more in interest than the more vibrant German economy.

In recent weeks, the Italian media has reported that the government has been lobbying other governments and multilateral entities -- the European Central Bank, China, and some specific European states were all mentioned -- to buy Italian debt, lowering interest rates and help shrink the spread.

A government spokesman said the reports were inaccurate, and, in any case, market watchers told Xinhua there was no evidence of significant and unusual buying trends on bond markets over the last two weeks.

Giuseppe Taranto, a professor of economic history at Rome's LUISS University, said the Italian government can push through with current interest rates and debt levels, in part because of the high level of private wealth in the country.

The real test, Taranto said, will come later in the year when the Conte government finalizes its government budget for 2019. The two other leading ratings agencies, Standard & Poor's and Moody's, both delayed their next risk reports on Italy until after the budget plan is completed.

"This is all just a precursor, just small stuff, until the specifics on the budget start to emerge," Taranto said in an interview.

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