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German exporters lower forecast for 2018
Last Updated: 2018-10-18 14:57 | Xinhua
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German exports will record weaker-than-expected growth in 2018 as a consequence of international trade conflicts, the Federation of German Wholesale, Foreign Trade and Services (BGA) predicted on Wednesday.

"For me this is not just a speed bump, it is the beginning of a downward trend," BGA president Holger Bingmann told the press. "Against this backdrop, we are lowering our growth forecast for German exports in the current year to 3.5 percent," Bingmann added. Last year, German exports went up by 6.3 percent.

The BGA had previously estimated that international sales of companies in Germany would rise by 5 percent in 2018. During the first six months of the year, total German exports rose by 4 percent to 663 billion euros (765 billion U.S. dollars). Bingmann emphasized, however that, it was becoming clear that companies would not be able to maintain the same pace of expansion in the second half of the year. A large amount of risks to firms' foreign orders were currently opposed to just "a few impulses for new growth."

The BGA largely attributed its gloomier outlook to an uptick protectionist measures as first initiated by the United States.

According to the BGA, first signs of the adverse effect of new U.S. import tariffs were reflected in a relatively weak growth in German exports to the United States by 1 percent between January and June. By contrast, German exports to China soared by 10 percent to a total of 53 billion during the same period.

Additionally, Bingmann pointed to the increasing likelihood of a disorderly Brexit as weighing on the sentiment to German exporters represented by the BGA. "There is a real danger that we will end up with a no-deal exit which is unwanted by both sides," he said. Such an outcome was likely to create "costs in the billions" of euros for German firms.

Exports from Germany to Britain have already fallen by nearly 3 percent to 42 billion euros between January and June. The BGA president urged heads of state to "finally find a solution" to the question of future relations between the European Union (EU) and Britain at a closely-watched summit in Brussels Wednesday.

Within the EU, Bingmann described Italy as the "biggest source of concern" for German exporters. Referring to controversial spending plans of the new Italian government, the BGA president argued that it was not acceptable for a country with public debt as high as Italy's to continue to add to its mountain of liabilities.

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